Ride The WAVE - NL West Outfielders

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

ARI: Eric Byrnes - .277/.341/.463

• 2007 was clearly Byrnes' career year. He should fall in nearly every category, but the fact that he produces in 4 out of 5 roto stats means he's still a high end outfielder. WAVE is projecting .277/96/22/81/38 in 614 AB.

ARI: Chris Young - .253/.314/.490

• Like Byrnes, Young is also a 4 category producer. His AVG should improve in year two, but scouts have always maintained that he would be a low average hitter, meaning that much growth beyond this shouldn't be expected. WAVE: .253/92/33/75/29 in 578 AB.

ARI: Justin Upton - .253/.321/.398

• He's only 20. Expecting more than his WAVE projection would be foolish, but Upton does possess the skills to make us into fools. The likely scenario is that Upton begins to produce at an All-Star level in another year or two. WAVE projects .253/64/11/54/12 in 478 AB.

COL: Matt Holliday - .333/.396/.587

• One of the premier sluggers in the NL, many believe Holliday was robbed of the MVP last season. He'll set out to win the 2008 version of the award, and has the bat to potentially do it. WAVE pegs him at .333/114/33/127/13 in 618 AB.

COL: Willy Taveras - .292/.337/.345

• It's scary that Taveras missed so much time in '07 due to leg injuries, considering that all of his value is dependent on his speed. Even his high AVG was produced as a result of legging out 27 bunt hits. Since the legs seem to have held up every other year, we'll have to assume Willy's issues in 2007 were nothing more than a fluke. WAVE: .292/81/2/30/37 in 531 AB.

COL: Brad Hawpe - .293/.388/.515

• Hawpe looked like a future 40 homer man in the minor leagues, but hasn't been able to figure out Major League left handed pitchers, batting a measly .214 against them in '07. If he ever managed to figure out southpaws, Brad would instantly become an elite slugger for fantasy purposes. Also, a lot is being made of the fact that Hawpe batted .308 with 19 HR at Coors, while hitting .273 with 10 HR away from home. I think this is fluke more than anything else. If anyone had bothered to check his 2006 splits, they'd see that he hit .282 with 6 HR at Coors, while batting .303 with 16 homers away from home. Sometimes too much is made of the "Coors Field Effect". WAVE projects .293/76/25/105/1 in 515 AB.

LAD: Juan Pierre - .289/.329/.360

• I'm aware that I have too many projected AB's for the Dodgers outfield. Something's gotta give. Pierre is the worst player of the four, but his large contract will likely ensure that he plays regularly. If LA is smart, and playing to win, they'll play they're three best outfielders, meaning Pierre will sit. A trade is also a possibility. So long as he's playing, Pierre provides plenty of fantasy value with his wheels. WAVE: .289/94/1/42/61 in 672 AB.

LAD: Matt Kemp - .300/.335/.487

• A major sleeper for the upcoming season, Kemp has been compared favourably to Manny Ramirez in the past. The problem is playing time. If the Dodgers can't find a taker for Juan Pierre, and decide to play him regularly, that will leave Kemp in a platoon role, making him a high risk high reward player for '08. WAVE sees Matt hitting .300/93/20/82/20 if he can find 546 AB.

LAD: Andruw Jones - .241/.332/.478

• Ths shiny new Dodger center fielder is the only outfielder on the roster that doesn't have to worry about playing time. Provided he's healthy, Jones will play. Chavez Ravine isn't going to do Andruw any favours is his bid for a comeback season, but all in all, his numbers should improve in 2008. WAVE: .241/91/35/109/5 in 573 AB.

LAD: Andre Ethier - .293/.357/.463

• Ethier is likely to either be the odd man out in the Dodger outfield, or in a platoon situation, limiting his fantasy appeal. If the Dodgers can manage to move Juan Pierre, or put his contract size out of their minds and play Ethier every day, he'll have fantasy value. WAVE pegs him at .293/50/12/62/2 in 430 AB.

SD: Scott Hairston - .266/.328/.469

• A popular sleeper pick entering 2007, it didn't take long for Hairston to prove that he hadn't progressed at the plate since his rookie season in 2004. He's the favourite for the starting Left Field gig in San Diego, but could be pushed aside by Matt Antonelli or Chase Headley before the season is out. WAVE: .266/55/17/48/3 in 388 AB.

SD: Jim Edmonds - .255/.345/.445

• Edmonds hasn't accrued 500+ AB's since 2001, and at 37, is likely not to ever again. Playing half his games in pitcher friendly Petco won't help his power numbers either. Probably just an NL only player on the downside of his career, WAVE is projecting .255/52/17/64/2 in 384 AB.

SD: Brian Giles - .273/.376/.418

• I often wonder if Giles will be lumped into the "Steroids Era" group of one-time power hitters gone weak, or if the move to Petco Park will explain it all away, when looked at by future generations. In OBP leagues, Giles still has his uses, but doesn't offer much to standard roto owners. WAVE sees him hitting .273/79/13/64/7 in 524 AB.

SF: Dave Roberts - .270/.342/.379

• Value as your steals man, but only so long as he's playing. It's been said that Roberts may be platooned, potentially limiting his value for 2008. WAVE: .270/66/3/31/33 in 422 AB.

SF: Randy Winn - .293/.348/.448

• Winn generally offers a little in all 5 offensive categories. WAVE likes him to hit .293/78/15/62/15 in 594 AB.

SF: Aaron Rowand - .297/.360/.485

• Just one year removed from finishing off a .262/.321/.425 season, the Giants signed Rowand to a 5 year $60 million contract. Aaron is likely to fall in almost every offensive category in 2008, and doesn't steal bases like he used to. He's likely to cost more at the draft table, than he will earn by seasons end. WAVE: .297/90/21/76/9 in 559 AB.

SF: Rajai Davis - .271/.337/.345

• Rajai is a real burner, and may platoon with Dave Roberts in '08. Even in limited playing time, he's likely to steal a bundle of bases, making him a bit of a sleeper. WAVE: .271/38/1/12/29 in 255 AB.

Ride The WAVE - NL Central Outfielders

As with all of the posts, if you see a player that is not projected, and would like him to be, simply let me know in the comments section. AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

CHC: Alfonso Soriano - .283/.331/.544

• A consistent 5 category star, the only real concern I have with Soriano is his dramatic decrease in SB last season (41 in '06 to 19 in '07). Even still, he should be safe to draft amongst the games top outfielders. WAVE: .283/102/36/83/26 in 607 AB.

CHC: Kosuke Fukudome - .310/.410/.484

• Considering that batting average has been one of the few hitting statistics that have translated on a nearly 1:1 scale from NPB to MLB, I'm surprised at all of the low AVG projections I've been seeing (.270-.290). If free swinger Akinori Iwamura can bat .285 in his rookie season, then surely Fukudome's patient aproach at the plate can result in an AVG over .300. The projected runs total is a function of Kosuke batting in the number three hole, something that Lou Piniella is apparently considering. Admittedly, this projection may be at the high end of the spectrum, but I plugged the numbers in, and this is what WAVE spit out: .310/112/16/91/11 in 545 AB.

CHC: Felix Pie - .260/.314/.405

• Fantasy owners are sure to be disappointed by this stat line. While he has much greater upside, and is still quite young, there's still a chance that Pie is nothing more than the new Corey Patterson. Time will tell. Bid accordingly. WAVE projects .260/66/10/50/17 in 504 AB.

CIN: Ken Griffey - .280/.364/.515

• Junior has stayed relatively healthy for three consecutive years now. His age, and past injury issues, may allow you to get a 30 homer man on the cheap. WAVE sees a .280/77/31/89/3 line in 497 AB.

CIN: Adam Dunn - .252/.381/.533

• A lock to hit 40 homers, make sure you have some high AVG hitters to compensate for Dunn's projected .252 line. WAVE: .252/101/40/101/8 in 535 AB.

CIN: Ryan Freel - .267/.345/.374

• So long as he steals bases, he'll have some fantasy value. Freel is unlikely to ever play every day again, whether that be due to injury, or opportunity. WAVE is projecting .267/53/4/19/24 in 337 AB.

CIN: Jay Bruce - .280/.361/.510

• Baseball America's 2007 Minor League Player of the Year, Bruce has the talent to take over in CF full time at some point in 2008, depsite having just turned 21. WAVE likes him to hit .280/44/12/47/6 in 296 AB.

HOU: Carlos Lee - .295/.349/.522

• Lee is another consistent outfielder who's performance should remain steady in '08. The dozen or so steals he's likely to provide are an added bonus. WAVE: .295/93/33/117/13 in 624 AB.

HOU: Michael Bourn - .268/.339/.375

• For whatever reason, Houston's offense seems incredibly underrated going into '08. The 'Stros are committed to hitting Bourn in the leadoff spot everyday, making 100 runs and 50 steals a lock in my book. Bourn won't have to get on base at an incredible clip to provide solid fantasy numbers, due to the high octane offense batting behind him. WAVE likes him as a sleeper, and to bat .268/117/5/40/62 in 586 AB.

HOU: Hunter Pence - .304/.355/.534

• The NL ROY race would have been a tight one, had Pence not gone down with a wrist injury. It will be fun to see what he can do in a full injury-free season. WAVE: .304/85/25/93/16 in 579 AB.

MIL: Ryan Braun - .311/.365/.592

• The man who beat out Pence for the aforementioned ROY award, Braun seems likely to slip a little in year two. Even experiencing a bit of a sophomore slump shouldn't hold Braun back from being one of the best young outfielders in the game (offensively anyway). WAVE: .311/110/38/115/24 in 578 AB.

MIL: Corey Hart - .311/.371/.559

• With a defined role, and regular playing time, Hart should only continue to get better. At 6'6", the steals aren't likely to be a mainstay, but for now, he's a 5 category player. WAVE projects .311/96/27/92/24 in 546 AB.

MIL: Mike Cameron - .257/.344/.463

• Cameron will sit out the first 25 games of the season following two positive tests for a banned stimulant, cutting into his fantasy value for '08. When he does return to the Brewers linuep, expect the Cameron of old, helping a little in every category but AVG. WAVE sees a .257/64/16/58/15 line in 408 AB.

PIT: Jason Bay - .268/.359/.472

• Many people are expecting a big rebound season from Bay in '08, and while he should bounce back a bit, WAVE doesn't see him returning to pre-2007 levels. While Bay's K rate remained within career norms in '07, his walk rate plummeted dramatically. The steals are also likely a thing of the past, as they fell all the way down to 4 last season. WAVE: .268/90/26/93/9 in 559 AB.

PIT: Nate McLouth - .262/.343/.453

• McLouth makes for a decent sleeper in '08 due to the power/speed combo he provides fantasy owners with. WAVE pegs him at .262/104/20/56/30 in 534 AB.

PIT: Xavier Nady - .277/.331/.463

• Nady seems to have trouble staying healthy, missing time in Spring Training with a viral infection, then missing time in the regular season due to a strained hamstring on 4 seperate occasions, and a HBP in September. All in all, his career high AB total is 468. If he could manage to stay healthy for a full season, he has 30 home run potential, but don't count on that happening. WAVE: .277/56/19/68/3 in 441 AB.

STL: Chris Duncan - .282/.372/.541

• Duncan proved the nay-sayers wrong last season, as he blasted 21 HR in only 375 AB. His splits are atrocious, but there's no way he should be sitting against any right handed pitcher, and should therefore rack up 500 + AB in Brad Hawpe fashion. WAVE: .282/86/34/99/2 in 521 AB.

STL: Rick Ankiel - .269/.327/.495

• Will Ankiel continue to mash without the HGH? Even as a pitcher, he was highly regarded at the dish. WAVE likes him for 30 HR on the cheap. .269/90/33/108/0 in 546 AB.

STL: Colby Rasmus - .279/.366/.517

• If Brian Barton can prove he's capable with the stick (which WAVE sees happening), then Rasmus may start the season in the minors. The CF job should be his before the year is out however. WAVE: .279/39/12/34/10 in 240 AB.

STL: Brian Barton - .279/.375/.415

• Barton should settle in as a fourth outfielder by seasons end, but he possesses solid speed, and a good eye at the dish, so for a small investment, he could potentially return some dividends. WAVE projects .279/57/10/57/22 in 366 AB.

Ride The WAVE - NL East Outfielders

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

ATL: Jeff Francoeur - .292/.333/.470

• Despite the poor walk rates, it appears that Francoeur's .260 AVG in '06 was a fluke. It's also possible that the 29 HR he hit that year was also a fluke, but Jeff is still young enough (24) to improve virtually every aspect of his offensive game, and the aforementioned walk rate actually rose considerably last season. WAVE is projecting .292/86/24/105/5 in 634 AB.

ATL: Mark Kotsay - .239/.293/.344

• Kotsay hasn't been much of a fantasy contributor for years, and it appears that his days of contributing much to a major league team are also nearly over. This is a Spring Training battle that fantasy players hope goes in Josh Anderson's favour, if only for the steals. WAVE: .239/38/5/39/3 in 355 AB/

ATL: Josh Anderson - .259/.312/.324

• His only real asset is his speed. If he wins the starting job, he's worth a couple of bucks for the stolen bases. Otherwise, keeper league owners should just grab Jordan Schafer and wait for the changing of the guard. WAVE: .259/25/1/19/12 in 216 AB.

ATL: Matt Diaz - .344/.377/.503

• I have my doubts that Diaz can improve on last season's .338 AVG, but WAVE has him as a batting title contender. It is important to note that Diaz has hit .338 in '07, .327 in '06, .371 in '05 (AAA), .332 in '04 (AAA), and .328 in '03 (AAA). The high averages seem to be for real, and here to stay, despite mediocre walk rates. Also, Matt managed to hit .318 off of right handed pitchers last year, so a platoon seems unnecessary, and more AB's should be in store for Diaz in 2008. WAVE is calling for a .344/68/17/68/6 line in 535 AB.

FLA: Jeremy Hermida - .304/.381/.509

• A former top prospect who struggled in his first exposure to MLB pitching, Hermida really came along last season, especially after the All-Star break, where he batted .340 with 10 HR. It should all come together in '08, although it doesn't appear as though he will provide fantasy owners with the steals that it once looked like he would. WAVE projects .304/77/23/82/5 in 566 AB.

FLA: Josh Willingham - .281/.376/.493

• Once a third baseman, and a catcher, Willingham now patrols LF for the Marlins. He won't hurt you in any category, and for the right price makes a fine fantasy outfielder. WAVE: .281/77/24/91/7 in 531 AB.

FLA: Cameron Maybin - .243/.329/.421

• I feel Maybin would be best served with a full AAA season, but with the rebuilding fish, they will probably go ahead and make him their starting CF. Don't expect much more than steals in his rookie season. WAVE pegs him at .243/75/15/51/30 in 420 AB.

NYM: Ryan Church - .289/.366/.495

• With both Carlos Gomez and Lastings Milledge gone, Church shouldn't have a problem racking up over 500 AB for the first time in his career. In a solid lineup, and a better hitting environment than RFK, Church should have a career year. WAVE: .289/74/20/91/6 in 564 AB.

NYM: Carlos Beltran - .274/.356/.512

• A former 5 category stud, Beltran's wheels seem to have slowed to a 20 steal pace, and he's settled into a .270 type hitter. Even still, he's one of the best in the biz, and will cost a pretty penny on draft day. WAVE is projecting .274/98/31/105/20 in 551 AB.

NYM: Moises Alou - .325/.382/.531

• Seemingly ageless at the dish, unfortunately Alou has issues remaining healthy for a full season. At 41 years old, despite his desire to rack up 500 AB, you shouldn't be counting on anything more than 350 AB or so. WAVE projects .325/54/16/57/3 in 354 AB.

PHI: Pat Burrell - .261/.392/.502

• Burrell can mash, but his AVG is likely to hurt you in fantasy. Expect more of the same in 2008. People of PHI: A .900 OPS is fantastic. Quit trashing the guy. WAVE: .261/85/33/110/0 in 540 AB.

PHI: Shane Victorino - .297/.365/.466

• If people in your league are expecting more of the 2007 version of Victorino in '08, than you should take advantage and buy low. Shane should accrue a lot more AB than he did last season, while batting in the 2-hole, snugly nestled in between Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. Those are two of the best bats in the game around the Flyin' Hawaiian, so he should see plenty of good pitches. Definitely a sleeper for 2008. WAVE is projecting a .297/108/17/67/42 line in 599 AB.

PHI: Geoff Jenkins - .264/.338/.464

• Jenkins is a fine low-end player for fantasy purposes, provided Philly is playing him regularly. WAVE: .264/63/23/76/2 in 511 AB.

WAS: Austin Kearns - .278/.375/.464

• Kearns can't keep disappointing forever. WAVE likes him to have arguably his best offensive season to date in 2008. .278/89/22/84/3 in 582 AB.

WAS: Lastings Milledge - .264/.333/.433

• Nothing special quite yet, but Lastings should blossom into one of the games best in time. Still only 23 years old. WAVE likes him for a .264/69/18/81/6 line in 534 AB.

WAS: Wily Mo Pena - .261/.321/.461

• Pena will get a great opportunity to show off his power stroke with regular playing time in 2008. Not so sure that he will ever become the 40 homer monster that the CIN brass envisioned, but 30 is definitely within reach. WAVE: .261/82/28/84/2 in 582 AB.

Free Roto Authority Projections

I've been meaning to post this for quite some time, but really, anyone reading this is likely already aware that Tim Dierkes has offered up his 2008 projections for free. Even still, I figured it's worth mentioning for anyone who wasn't apprised. All that Tim asks in return, is that if you download the excel file, you bring 5 new readers to Roto Authority. Sweet deal! The projections can be found here. As I previously mentioned in this post, I feel it's important to look over as many sets of projections as possible, and compare them to one another. This info, combined with your own intuitions, should be a useful tool to help guide you smoothly through draft day.

Helllloooo Newman!

Feel free to email me any baseball related questions you may have for SFB's mailbag: sciencefictionbaseball@hotmail.com

What's the story on Yu Darvish? Will this guy be any good in '09? Thanks!

BIO:
For those who are unaware of exactly who Yu Darvish is, I'll take a moment to provide a brief bio. Darvish is the ace pitcher for the Nippon Ham Fighters (quite possibly the coolest pro sports team name ever), and number one starting pitcher in Japan, now that Matsuzaka has left to pitch for the Red Sox. It certainly could be argued that Darvish would be the best pitcher in the NPB whether or not Matsuzaka had left. At merely 22 years of age, Yu won the 2007 Sawamura Award (NPB's equivalent of the Cy Young) by posting a 1.82 ERA, 15 wins, 12 CG, and 210 K's. At 6'5" tall, many scouts feel he will add bulk to his frame, simultaneously adding durability, and a few MPH to his fastball. Rumors have circulated over the course of the last couple of months that Darvish may be posted after the 2008 season, with the Yankees first in line to sign him.

RESPONSE:
Darvish will be phenomenal in 2009, but unfortunately for fantasy leaguers, all those great stats will be accrued in the NPB in Japan. One Japanese Daily (Sankei Sports) ran the story of Darvish's potential posting, and while American media jumped all over the piece, not a SINGLE OTHER Japanese Daily picked up the story. That speaks volumes as to how legitimate the initial 'news' was. This thread gives you an idea of the validity of the rumor. There are a few factors to consider here. First, and most important, "unlike Matsuzaka, Darvish has told the Japanese press that he has no intention of seeking a move to America anytime in the future". Second, he is under control of the Nippon Ham Fighters until 2014. Third, Nippon Ham isn't in dire need of the cash they would receive from posting Darvish. Logic dictates that if the Fighters were to decide to post Darvish, they would do so as close to 2014 as possible. Similarly, the Seibu Lions posted Matsuzaka one season before he would have qualified for free agency. Assuming Yu Darvish changes his mind about playing in MLB, I would be surprised to see him posted before 2011 or 2012. Unless you're in an athletes who model roto league, Darvish shouldn't be on anyone's radar just yet.

Who will be the first of the '07 amateur draft class to make fantasy impact?

Dave

When trying to predict the fantasy impact of prospects, it is very important to look at, not only the talent involved, but the opportunity for playing time in an extended role. For example, David Price looks like a phenomenal prospect, but Tampa Bay has plenty of top notch SP prospects that currently rank ahead of him on the depth chart (Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, Jacob McGee, etc.), while maybe not necessarily ranking ahead of him as far as pure skills go. I'm going to pick one of either Beau Mills (3B, CLE) or Ross Dewiler (SP, WAS). Detwiler piched one inning for WAS last September to become the first of the '07 draft class to make it to the Majors. The Nats seem to have built a rotation around the "quantity over quality" philosophy over the last few years, and Detwiler's high upside arm shouldn't have trouble cracking the rotation in '09. CLE is nearly done with Casey Blake as a regular at third, and once highly regarded prospect Andy Marte hasn't progressed at the plate in AAA. With his surgically repaired shoulder apparently at 100%, Mills could fill in the gap in '09. Of course, these things rarely work out the way you expect them to, and it's just as likely that ARI can't find a suitable closer and Jarrod Parker is slamming the door shut in June. But it's always fun to speculate.

How much should you really value a shaky closer at the draft table? Will Todd Jones & Joe Borowski be worth the investment? -PG

I personally don't advocate spending much on closers on draft day. Year after year, relief pitchers come out of nowhere to nail down the closers job mid-season, and are available off the waiver wire for cheap. In fact, I picked a Florida Marlins relief pitcher off the waiver wire in 2005 for $1. He went on to post a 2.10 ERA and 40 saves, and I went on to win the League Championship. That man was none other than Todd Jones. Jones and Borowski are both shaky options for '08, but if you get them cheap enough, or late enough, in a draft, be sure to draft Masahide Kobayashi or Fernando Rodney as well. If you can, I'd steer clear and look for other cheap options like Matt Capps of PIT or Kevin Gregg of FLA.

Does Juan Gonzalez have any chance in hell of cracking St. Louis' outfield?

Yanksin08

No. While it would make for a nice story, and Gonzalez is probably no worse than Sammy Sosa, who made a decent comeback in '07, It's just not likely. Juan Gone is hard pressed to stay healthy for any significant amount of time at this point, and STL's OF is pretty set, with Rick Ankiel, Colby Rasmus, Chris Duncan, Ryan Ludwick, Rule V pick Brian Barton, and even Scott Speizio, who played 18 games in the OF in '07.

Player Eligibility

Just a reminder that Scouting Book offers, among many other things, a Multiple Position Eligibility tool, that allows you to pick the number of games needed to qualify at a position, and sorts the players out accordingly. Depending on your leagues eligibility rules, it's possible to find a gem at a thin position, where you weren't even aware he qualified. Very cool, and quite handy.

Sleepers - Updated

Sleepers are nearly as difficult to define, as they are to pick out. Generally, a sleeper is considered to be a player who will fall under the radar, and perform at a level most people weren't expecting. I feel there are a few classes of players that fall under that definition. There are players who will sneak up and grab way more AB's (or IP) than anyone was anticipating; players who performed very well in 2007, to the point that most fantasy owners don't feel a repeat is possible; and finally, players who performed so poorly in 2007, that fantasy owners are expecting a poor repeat performance. SO FAR, looking at my projections, I would say the following players are sleepers for 2008:

CATCHERS
J.R. Towles
Ronny Paulino
Ryan Doumit
Kenji Johjima
Jarrod Saltalamacchia

DH'S
Travis Hafner
Billy Butler

FIRST BASEMEN
Joey Votto
James Loney
Wilson Betemit
Carlos Pena
Ryan Garko
Richie Sexson

SECOND BASEMEN
Kelly Johnson
Felipe Lopez
Mark DeRosa
Brandon Phillips
Ian Stewart
Jeff Kent
Brendan Harris
Howie Kendrick

SHORTSTOPS
Ryan Theriot
Miguel Tejada
Jason Bartlett

THIRD BASEMEN
Dallas McPherson
Edwin Encarnacion
Ty Wigginton
Jose Bautista
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Mike Lowell
Josh Fields
Hank Blalock

I will update this list as I post projections. Obviously there are varying degrees of sleepers here, not to mention various reasons for why some of these guys are categorized as a sleeper, but hopefully this list will be a helpful tool for fantasy owners on draft day.

Breaking News - Kyle Kendrick Traded to Japan

PHI pitcher Kyle Kendrick has been traded to the Yomiuri Giants in exchange for World Record holder Takeru Kobayashi. Please view the video below for more information.

Ride The WAVE - AL West Third Basemen

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

LAA: Chone Figgins - .294/.359/.395

• Figgins had a huge second half in '07, batting .361 with 21 SB. Chone missed plenty of time due to two broken fingers, and later in the season, a sprained left wrist, accumulating only 442 AB. He should get close to the 600 AB plateau in '08, and his steals should rise as a result. WAVE projects .294/102/6/65/54 in 598 AB.

OAK: Eric Chavez - .241/.316/.430

• Chavez seems to be forever on the mend. He'll need to stay healthy for a full season in order to provide significant fantasy value, something that just isn't likely to happen. Eric had offseason surgeries on both shoulders and his back. Caveat emptor. WAVE: .241/62/19/66/4 in 461 AB.

SEA: Adrian Beltre - .269/.318/.460

• Beltre doesn't appear likely to ever come close to his career best season of 2004. His newfound ability to steal bases is a nice consolation prize for the decrease in power. WAVE pegs Adrian at .269/83/24/94/11 in 602 AB.

TEX: Hank Blalock - .274/.335/.459

• Blalock played rather well last year after returning from surgery to have a rib removed. He is supposed to be ready to field his position by the start of the season, and should be capable of playing the full schedule injury-free. Factor in his age 27 season, and Blalock should return to being a useful fantasy property in '08. WAVE sees him batting .274/85/24/94/6 in 616 AB.

Ride The WAVE - AL Central Third Basemen

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

CHW: Josh Fields - .275/.348/.514

• It looks as though Fields will be the starter at third whether Joe Crede is shipped out of town or not, according to manager Ozzie Guillen. SF remains a likely destination for Crede, however. Fields is projected by WAVE to display solid power in '08: .275/82/30/96/6 in 510 AB.

CLE: Casey Blake - .271/.341/.455

• Blake is possibly entering his last season as a starter, making him an unattractive pick in keeper leagues. WAVE projects .271/76/20/73/5 in 532 AB.

DET: Miguel Cabrera - .325/.404/.565

• The Tigers offseason acquisition of Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis immediately made them AL Central favourites. Cabrera's consistency means that he's likely to provide DET with similar numbers to the ones he posted in FLA. WAVE: .325/99/32/117/3 in 591 AB.

KC: Alex Gordon - .272/.352/.474

• Gordon disappointed fans and fantasy owners alike in his rookie season, but it's easy to forget that he was only 23 years old with only one professional season under his belt. KC has been very aggressive with Alex, so the All-Star numbers may take another season or two to arrive. WAVE sees him batting .272/89/23/85/19 in 599 AB in '08.

MIN: Mike Lamb - .280/.345/.443

• Lamb will get a shot at regular playing time for the first time since his rookie season in 2000. More of an AL-only type, WAVE has him at .280/64/14/57/1 in 429 AB.

Ride The WAVE - AL East Third Basemen

As with all of the posts, if you see a player that is not projected, and would like him to be, simply let me know in the comments section. AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

BAL: Melvin Mora - .272/.337/.419

• There won't be as many baserunners to knock in as there were in Mora's heyday in BAL. Injuries limited his playing time in '07, but he is supposed to be healthy entering 2008. Even with a full season of AB's, Melvin's usefulness is limited. WAVE projects .272/76/17/72/9 in 530 AB.

BOS: Mike Lowell - .300/.357/.486

• I'm sure it's obvious to just about everyone, but it's worth repeating that Lowell likely had his career year in '07. Still, Fenway has been kind to him, and the lineup surrounding him is incredible. Don't dismiss him completely on draft day. WAVE: .300/74/18/98/3 in 566 AB.

NYY: Alex Rodriguez - .310/.413/.597

• Likely the first overall pick in your 2008 draft, Rodriguez' numbers will inevitably decline from his spectacular MVP '07 season. Even on a down year, A-Rod has always been one of the best. Bid with confidence. WAVE pegs him at .310/132/49/143/21/ in 606 AB.

TB: Evan Longoria - .259/.341/.461

• The rookie phenom is as likely to start at third for the Rays, as he is to disappoint fantasy owners. Not every 22 year old bursts onto the scene with All-Star numbers (remember Alex Gordon in '07?), so be sure to temper your enthusiasm. WAVE still sees a good amount of pop coming from Longoria in 406 AB: .259/66/20/71/3

TOR: Scott Rolen - .287/.362/.457

• Assuming good health, Rolen should be serviceable with the bat, while playing outstanding defense for the Jays. I'm still not a huge fan of the Rolen for Glaus swap for the blue birds, but will go ahead and assume that J.P. Ricciardi knows something that I don't. WAVE projects .287/80/15/84/6 in 477 AB.

Ride The WAVE - NL West Third Basemen

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

ARI: Mark Reynolds - .281/.352/.510

• I'm really unsure as to what will happen with Mark Reynolds and Chad Tracy, now that Tracy is healthy. I've projected both here for a little over 400 AB's apiece. WAVE sees Reynolds hitting .281/73/21/75/0 in 416 AB.

ARI: Chad Tracy - .291/.360/.493

• See above. WAVE projects Tracy to hit .291/63/17/63/2 in 420 AB in '08.

COL: Garrett Atkins - .307/.375/.492

• Atkins is a solid run producer capable of hitting for a high AVG. His true abilities probably lie somewhere in between his 2006 and 2007 numbers. WAVE pegs him at .307/90/24/114/2 in 610 AB for 2008.

LAD: Nomar Garciaparra - .294/.343/.430

• LA will likely go with the veteran to start the season, with LaRoche taking over, at the latest, when rosters expand. If Nomah starts slow again like he did in '07, Joe Torre shouldn't hesitate to go with the youngster. WAVE is projecting .294/47/11/61/2 in 395 AB.

LAD: Andy LaRoche - .262/.353/.432

• Andy, the younger brother of PIT first baseman Adam, and son of former MLB pitcher Dave, should easily prove to be the best hitter in the family in due time. LaRoche should be eased into a starting job, and may even begin the season in AAA. A must-have in keeper leagues, WAVE likes him for a .262/48/8/32/2 line in 248 AB.

SD: Kevin Kouzmanoff - .290/.346/.484

• The Crushin' Russian batted only .113 in April and .228 in the first half. His sub-par '07 season totals hide the fact that Kouzmanoff batted .317 with 11 HR after the All-Star break, making him an ideal sleeper, and a breakout candidate for 2008. WAVE: .290/67/22/90/2 in 541 AB.

SF: Rich Aurilia - .267/.319/.417

• Aurilia played 9 games at second base and 12 at shortstop in '07. If he qualifies at either position or MI in your league, he has some value. Otherwise, pass. WAVE projects: .267/61/13/61/1 in 475 AB.

Ride The WAVE - NL Central Third Basemen

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

CHC: Aramis Ramirez - .302/.359/.554

• Expect a few nagging injuries to A-Ram over the course of the season, but he's still a consistent 30 HR 100 RBI threat. WAVE projects .302/76/30/103/1 in 516 AB.

CIN: Edwin Encarnacion - .289/.362/.463

• Encarnacion seems to be a sleeper every February, but at 25, this should be the season he starts to put it all together. He should be a consistent 25 HR hitter in his prime. WAVE pegs him at .289/71/19/84/9 in 516 AB for '08.

HOU: Ty Wigginton - .287/.343/.492

• Is he really better than Morgan Ensberg? WAVE likes Wigginton to have a big season (by his standards) in a full season with HOU, projecting .287/72/25/77/4 in 537 AB.

MIL: Bill Hall - .263/.324/.466

• Hall will play all of 2008 at the hot corner, with Ryan Braun (rightfully) shifting to Left Field. Hall should perform a little better than in '07, but he's no 35 HR hitter. WAVE: .263/77/21/74/9 in 532 AB.

PIT: Jose Bautista - .263/.355/.459

• Jose Bautista was once compared to Aramis Ramirez while slugging away in the minors. While he would go on to one day replace Ramirez as the Pirates starting third baseman, the comparison really ends there. Still, WAVE calls for a bit of a breakout season for Jose in his age 27 season: .263/84/21/71/6 in 566 AB.

STL: Troy Glaus - .252/.355/.484

• Will he stay healthy? STL and TOR swapped injury prone third basemen this off-season, and Glaus will look to start fresh and prove he still has something left in the tank. WAVE projects .252/80/30/85/1 in 504 AB.

Ride The WAVE - NL East Third Basemen

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

ATL: Chipper Jones - .332/.426/.601

• Consistent when healthy, Jones managed to post 500 AB for the first time since 2003, and the results were fantastic. WAVE likes him to do it again in '08, calling for .332/106/30/104/6 in 506 AB.

FLA: Dallas McPherson - .273/.319/.505

• The recently acquired McPherson is definitely a sleeper at the hot corner. A former top prospect in the Angels system, there's no doubting that the power Dallas possesses is for real, but questions regarding health, and excessive strike outs, remain good reasons for cautious optimism. Can he put it all together in his age 27 season? WAVE projects .273/60/24/52/4 in 440 AB.

NYM: David Wright - .319/.404/.543

• Wright is a 5 category stud at third. What more is there to say? WAVE: .319/107/29/108/27 in 593 AB.

PHI: Pedro Feliz - .249/.288/.446

• Feliz couldn't have possibly found a better place to sign than Philly. Even if he's batting in the bottom third of the lineup, his fantasy value immediately goes up due to the ballpark switch, and the better lineup surrounding him. WAVE pegs him at .249/73/25/88/1 in 570 AB.

WAS: Ryan Zimmerman - .287/.350/.499

• Still only 23 years old, Zimmerman may yet blossom into a top 3 third baseman in his prime. WAVE is projecting .287/99/26/102/6 in 637 AB.

Ride The WAVE - AL West Shortstops

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

LAA: Erick Aybar - .266/.305/.336

• I'm skeptical Aybar will hold off Maicer Izturis all season long, but he seems to be the favourite for the starting SS gig heading into Spring Training. WAVE: .266/54/3/42/15 in 429 AB.

OAK: Bobby Crosby - .239/.296/.373

• Perennial injury risk, and perennial dissapointment, if he can muster 448 AB, this is how WAVE sees it going down: .239/59/12/44/9

SEA: Yuniesky Betancourt - .292/.313/.417

• Since Betancourt is solid with the glove, and Carlos Triunfel is still a few years away, you can safely expect more of the same from Yuniesky over the next couple of seasons. WAVE projects .292/75/8/63/7 in 569 AB for 2008.

TEX: Michael Young - .317/.366/.444

• WAVE is projecting a return of some of Young's lost power. He only managed a .418 SLG in '07. .317/90/13/95/10 in 657 AB.

Ride The WAVE - AL Central Shortstops

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

CHW: Orlando Cabrera - .291/.338/.396

• Cabrera moves to a better hitters park, but doesn't have as good of a supporting cast in Chicago. WAVE is projecting .291/94/8/77/22 in 609 AB.

CLE: Jhonny Peralta - .273/.342/.440

• Many thought that Jhonny would hit for a higher AVG in the Majors after batting .326 as a 22 year old in AAA in 2004, but it hasn't happened. He seems to have settled in as a .270/20 HR type, still plenty valuable as a fantasy SS. WAVE: .273/86/20/73/2 in 557 AB.

DET: Edgar Renteria - .304/.365/.432

• Renteria struggled in his first go in the AL, but should fare much better his second time around in the potent DET lineup. WAVE pegs him at .304/91/11/62/12 in 546 AB.

KC: Tony Pena - .256/.277/.343

• An all-glove type who should be avoided in all but the deepest of AL-only leagues. WAVE projects .256/72/3/55/6 in 554 AB.

MIN: Adam Everett - .236/.279/.340

• Everett and Pena will battle it out for worst offensive SS in the AL Central. Unless Everett reverts back to stealing 20 bases, he's virtually useless in standard fantasy leagues. There's also the chance that Alexi Casilla finally steps up and takes a MI position, relegating Everett to utility man status. WAVE: .236/45/7/44/11 in 509 AB.

Helllloooo Newman!

Feel free to email me any baseball related questions you may have for SFB's mailbag: sciencefictionbaseball@hotmail.com

Will Alexei Ramirez get significant playing time with the White Sox? I see that you've projected Uribe and Richar to play second, where does Ramirez fit in? Thanks,

Marc.

No, I don't think Ramirez will get significant MLB playing time in '08. It appeared, for a while, that he would be given an opportunity to compete for the starting CF job, but Chicago's acquisition of Nick Swisher has filled up any previously existing OF vacancies. Expect Alexei to start out the year in A+, or AA, and work his way through the minors. We'll get a better feel for his fantasy value after a couple of hundred minor league AB's.

How much of an impact will Washington's new ball park be on fantasy players? Thanks! Gary C. Florida

RFK Stadium had dimensions of 335 ft in Left, 380 ft in Left Center, 410 ft in Center, 380 ft in Right Center, and 335 ft to Right. The outfield dimensions were very symmetrical. The new Nationals Park, has dimensions of 336 ft in Left, 377 ft in Left Center, 403 ft in Center, 370 ft in Right Center, and 335 ft to Right. Officials are saying that Nationals Park’s asymmetrical playing field geometry is intended to create more exciting plays, so we should see the ball bouncing around a little bit more out there, to the aid of speedy hitters. By the footage, you can see that the largest disparagement between old and new stadiums, is in Right Center, where the new park is 10 ft smaller, and in Center, where the new park is 7 ft smaller. This obviously will benefit (as mentioned here) Left handed power hitters. Things of note: Swirling winds could in fact keep the ball in the park more; There is much less foul territory, resulting in less foul pop-outs for pitchers, and more second chances for hitters. I personally won't let the move from a pitcher's park to a neutral stadium effect my bidding on draft day. Much of the reason the Nat's didn't score many runs at home was their anemic offense, as opposed to park effects. Also remember, anything right now is purely speculation. Until a full seasons worth of data has been collected, no one really knows how the new Nationals Park will play out.

Hello, I'm a big fan of fantasy baseball and always on the prowl for sleepers. It seems like names such as Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria and Cameron Maybin are grabbing all the headlines. Who are the potential impact sleepers that aren't capturing attention....yet?
Thanks!

PG

I'm not quite finished all of my projections, so this is a question that I will definitely be re-visiting. Sleepers are nearly as difficult to define, as they are to pick out. Generally, a sleeper is considered to be a player who will fall under the radar, and perform at a level most people weren't expecting. I feel there are a few classes of players that fall under that definition. The first one, as you point out, are top notch prospects. Secondly, there are players who sneak up and grab way more AB's (or IP) than anyone was anticipating. Third on the list, are players who performed very well in 2007, to the point that most fantasy players don't feel a repeat is possible. And finally, players who performed so poorly in 2007, that fantasy players are expecting a repeat performance. SO FAR, looking at my projections, I would say the following players are sleepers for 2008: J.R. Towles, Ronny Paulino, Ryan Doumit, Kenji Johjima, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia at C. Travis Hafner and Billy Butler at DH. Joey Votto, James Loney, Wilson Betemit, Carlos Pena, Ryan Garko, and Richie Sexson at first base. Kelly Johnson, Felipe Lopez, Mark DeRosa, Brandon Phillips, Ian Stewart, Jeff Kent, Brendan Harris, and Howie Kendrick at second base. Ryan Theriot, Miguel Tejada, and Jason Bartlett at SS. I will update this list as I post projections. Obviously there are varying degrees of sleepers here, not to mention various reasons for why some of these guys are categorized as a sleeper. As a side note, second base looks terribly deep this year.

Is this website just a source for fantasy projections, or is there more coming? -Team A.

There is definitely more coming. I started up the site in mid-January, so completing all of the projections has been a major priority, in order to finish them up before most people draft. The mailbag will be a regular feature, I hope to conduct more interviews with people in the fantasy baseball business, and articles and analysis will be a daily thing once the projections are completed.

Ride The WAVE - AL East Shortstops

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

BAL: Luis Hernandez - .219/.248/.281

• The BAL SS situation is another one to completely avoid in fantasy baseball. Apparently Hernandez has a good glove, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him get the bulk of the playing time over Brandon Fahey and Freddie Bynum. WAVE: .219/27/1/24/4 in 288 AB.

BOS: Julio Lugo - .262/.322/.382

• The steals are valuable, and Lugo's random high AVG, and power spurt seasons, can come without notice. Add in the high octane lineup in BOS, and Lugo could end up beating these WAVE projections. .262/75/9/62/33 in 550 AB.

NYY: Derek Jeter - .324/.395/.458

• The steals and power aren't what they once were, but Jeter still provides a high AVG and lots of runs scored at a thin position. Name recognition could make him cost a buck or two extra on draft day. WAVE sees a .324/110/14/78/19 line in 642 AB.

TB: Jason Bartlett - .282/.354/.379

• Bartlett gets a fresh start in TB, moving over in the Delmon Young/Matt Garza deal. He showed the ability to hit for high averages while stealing plenty of bases in the minors, and WAVE sees him improving in his second full MLB season. .282/83/5/49/22 in 557 AB.

TOR: David Eckstein - .295/.351/.369

• According to TOR GM J.P. Ricciardi, Eckstein is exactly the kind of "Dirt Bag" (Yes, you read that right) that the Jays need. The steals are virtually gone. The power was never there. WAVE is projecting .295/73/4/39/10 in 542 AB.

Ride the WAVE - NL West Shortstops

As with all of the posts, if you see a player that is not projected, and would like him to be, simply let me know in the comments section. AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

ARI: Stephen Drew - .262/.334/.420

• WAVE doesn't see the big breakout season just yet for the 25 year old Drew. Still, he should only continue to get better. .262/66/15/64/9 in 557 AB.

COL: Troy Tulowitzki - .306/.377/.497

• Defense included, Tulo could be the best all-around SS in the game. WAVE likes him to show some more offensive growth in '08, with a .306/115/25/105/9 line in 638 AB.

LAD: Rafael Furcal - .279/.343/.392

• Furcal had been very consistent in recent years, but wasn't quite himself in '07, missing time with both ankle and back injuries. HR, 2B, and SB all slipped last season, but he should bounce back reasonably well in '08. WAVE projects .279/95/9/53/32 in 605 AB.

SD: Khalil Greene - .258/.304/.467

• Lost in all of the hype over Greene's fine offensive season, was a brutal, and new career low, .291 OBP. WAVE doesn't see much growth or progression for Greene with plate discipline of that nature. It wouldn't surprise me to see him drop back to pre-2007 totals, but WAVE is projecting .258/89/26/100/6 in 628 AB.

SF: Omar Vizquel - .261/.324/.339

• The 41 year old Vizquel is on the decline, and not likely to get in a full season while playing such a demanding position. WAVE pegs him at .261/52/3/42/15 in 440 AB.

Ride The WAVE - NL Central Shortstops

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

CHC: Ryan Theriot - .296/.362/.396

• WAVE is projecting 'The Riot' as a bit of a sleeper for 2008. Theriot looks like a solid bargain as far as cost relative to production. Keep in mind however, that a slow start could result in Ronny Cedeno getting another extended look at SS. .296/95/5/51/34 in 531 AB.

CIN: Alex Gonzalez - .267/.318/.429

• Moderate power and nothing much else. More of an NL only type. WAVE projects .267/51/12/51/1 in 401 AB.

HOU: Miguel Tejada - .300/.353/.465

• Steroid allegations may play a role in Tejada's 2008 performance. That sentiment will allow you to get Miguel on the cheap come draft day. Tejada missed time in 2007 due to a fractured right wrist, that ended the 5th longest consecutive games played streak in history. It was only two seasons ago that he batted .330 and posted 100 RBI, and the move to a favourable hitters park should help him return to elite SS numbers. Grab him at a discounted price, and reap the rewards. WAVE: .300/90/24/98/3 in 650 AB.

MIL: J.J. Hardy - .285/.339/.464

• Hardy finally came into his own in '07. Surrounded by a group of young studs in the MIL lineup should ensure strong totals for years to come. WAVE pegs him at .285/88/24/83/1 in 590 AB in 2008.

PIT: Jack Wilson - .277/.326/.399

• 2004 is a distant memory, and while Wilson certainly won't hurt you in any particular category, he's not much of a help either. WAVE projects .277/65/10/50/3 in 516 AB.

STL: Cesar Izturis - .257/.303/.322

• Defense alone should keep Izturis in the starting lineup for most of 2008. Not a valuable fantasy commodity. WAVE: .257/41/1/26/5 in 416 AB.

Ride The WAVE - NL East Shortstops

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

ATL: Yunel Escobar - .297/.359/.412

• ATL felt comfortable enough with Escobar at SS that they shipped Edgar Renteria off to DET in the offseason. Don't expect much more than a good AVG from Yunel in his first full season in the bigs. WAVE is projecting a .297/76/8/63/13 line in 573 AB.

FLA: Hanley Ramirez - .335/.391/.562

• Do you remember ten years ago, or so, when baseball had "The Big Three" at SS? It consisted of Jeter, A-Rod, and Garciaparra. Todays big three are all located in the NL East (Ramirez, Rollins, Reyes), and Hanley Ramirez may just be at the top of the class. WAVE is predicting a virtual repeat of Hanley's remarkable 2007, at .335/125/26/76/53 in 621 AB.

NYM: Jose Reyes - .284/.351/.430

• Reyes may never be the annual 20 HR threat people hoped he would become, though he is still young enough (24) to develop more power. However, when you're stealing 70 bases a season, any power is really just icing on the cake. WAVE pegs Reyes at .284/115/13/63/71 in 677 AB in 2008.

PHI: Jimmy Rollins - .294/.345/.502

• At 29 years old, Rollins likely hit his peak HR total in 2007. A solid contributor in all 5 fantasy categories, Rollins should provide more of the same for several more seasons, making him an ideal keeper league candidate. WAVE: .294/131/25/83/40 in 693 AB.

WAS: Cristian Guzman - .252/.293/.359

• Is it fair to project Guzman to miss time in 2008? After missing all of 2006, and most of 2007, and WAS possessing a viable alternative at SS in Felipe Lopez, fair or unfair, WAVE has Guzman accruing a meager 326 AB in '08. .252/41/4/23/4

Ride The WAVE - AL West Second Basemen

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

LAA: Howie Kendrick - .347/.373/.492

• Extremely low walk totals will keep Kendrick's AB and hit totals high. Barring injury, this is the year Howie wins his first batting title. WAVE: .347/92/11/72/12 in 614 AB.

OAK: Mark Ellis - .284/.346/.444

• Ellis broke out in '07 the way many had predicted he would in '06. A solid all around player, WAVE has Ellis projected at .284/80/16/67/6 in 518 AB.

SEA: Jose Lopez - .266/.300/.379

• Despite being only 24 years old, SEA seems just about ready to move on at second base. The Brad Wilkerson signing will likely mean Jose Vidro plays at second quite a bit more in '08 than last season, resulting in less AB for Lopez. Those are some good reasons not to go the extra dollar in bidding. WAVE pegs Lopez at .266/55/9/59/3 in 467 AB.

TEX: Ian Kinsler - .272/.355/.448

• Not the future batting champ that some had predicted while coming up through the minors, Kinsler still provides good pop and SB numbers for a second baseman. WAVE: .272/104/22/72/23 in 563 AB.