Ride The WAVE - AL Central Second Basemen

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

CHW: Danny Richar - .257/.308/.408

• WAVE doesn't project Richar to be the answer at second that the White Sox are hoping for. With Uribe still around, AB should be limited as well. .257/44/8/35/5 in 358 AB.

CHW: Juan Uribe - .238/.283/.405

• With the acquisition of Orlando Cabrera, Uribe becomes trade bait, a utility man, or a platoon partner at second. He's unlikely to accrue the 513 AB he totaled in '07. WAVE is projecting .238/44/15/56/2 in 395 AB.

CLE: Asdrubal Cabrera - .279/.341/.397

• CLE appears to be set to go with Cabrera at second base over Josh Barfield in '08. Asdrubal will need to learn how to steal more bags at the MLB level to make for a solid fantasy selection. WAVE pegs him at .279/63/8/43/11 in 441 AB.

DET: Placido Polanco - .319/.366/.428

• Expect a high average with moderate power for the position. Playing on a contender will boost run production. WAVE: .319/91/8/62/5 in 540 AB.

KC: Mark Grudzielanek - .295/.335/.413

• For a while it appeared that KC may have gone with Esteban German at second in '08, but the Royals excercised Grudzielanek's 2008 option in the offseason. WAVE sees a .295/71/7/52/3 line in 491 AB from Grudzy.

MIN: Brendan Harris - .280/.336/.430

• New Twin Harris will be hard pressed to repeat his breakout 2007 performance, but WAVE likes him to come close to it. .280/77/14/63/3 in 551 AB.

Ride The WAVE - AL East Second Basemen

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

BAL: Brian Roberts - .296/.375/.447

• Playing for the Cubs would likely generate more runs scored for Roberts, but a fine fantasy second baseman either way. WAVE puts him at .296/97/13/61/42 in 595 AB.

BOS: Dustin Pedroia - .326/.392/.457

• WAVE sees the AVG continuing upward, and a power spike is possible. .326/96/9/58/8 in 576 AB.

NYY: Robinson Cano - .317/.354/.504

• Like the Yankee second baseman before him, many baseball analysts figured Cano's weak strike zone judgement could be his demise. Both Soriano and Cano continue to prove the analysts wrong. WAVE projects .317/95/21/97/3 in 641 AB.

TB: Akinori Iwamura - .288/.362/.436

• The move to second base immediately improves Iwamura's fantasy value, and WAVE is calling for more power in year two. .288/90/14/50/11 in 566 AB.

TOR: Aaron Hill - .295/.345/.445

• 2008 will determine whether Hill's '07 power spike was for real. WAVE pegs him at .295/87/14/74/5 in 614 AB.

Ride The WAVE - NL West Second Basemen

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

ARI: Orlando Hudson - .287/.358/.435

• The O-Dog was on pace for a career year before sitting out the final month with a torn ACL in his left thumb. Expect Hudson to be fully healthy in 2008, with the potential for the career year he was robbed of in '07. WAVE is projecting a .287/79/12/70/10 line in 568 AB.

COL: Ian Stewart - .268/.343/.429

• I'm going with Stewart because he's the most talented, but the reality is, any one of Stewart, Marcus Giles, Clint Barmes, Jeff Baker, Jayson Nix, or Omar Quintanilla could win the starting gig out of Spring Training. Ian is probably worth owning in keeper leagues whether he wins the starting second base job or not, while everyone else should be avoided until COL sorts this mess out. WAVE: .268/60/12/58/8 in 366 AB.

LAD: Jeff Kent - .297/.378/.500

• He just doesn't seem to be slowing down. Minor injuries have limited his AB in recent years, but his rate stats are still fantastic. A top 10 fantasy second baseman available on the cheap in most drafts. WAVE pegs him at .297/79/21/83/2 in 488 AB.

SD: Tadahito Iguchi - .272/.346/.396

• Petco won't be as friendly to Iguchi as US Cellular and Citizens Bank were. Iguchi's signing was a good move by SD, as they can now let Chase Headley and Matt Antonelli develop further. If one of the two rookies proves ready and capable at second, don't be surprised to see Iguchi traded at the deadline. WAVE sees a .272/81/11/59/14 line in 545 AB.

SF: Ray Durham - .251/.322/.405

• The batting average should bounce back somewhat, but Durham appears to be on the decline. WAVE projects .251/63/14/73/9 in 479 AB.

Helllloooo Newman!

Just a reminder that you can feel free to email me any baseball related questions you may have for SFB's mailbag. I have a couple of good questions already (one which will warrant it's own post), but would like a few more before posting answers. Thanks!

sciencefictionbaseball@hotmail.com

Ride The WAVE - NL Central Second Basemen

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

CHC: Mark DeRosa - .297/.372/.438

• DeRosa was everything the Cubs had hoped for in 2007, after signing him to a 3 year contract in '06. He should provide more of the same in '08. WAVE: .297/71/12/74/2 in 502 AB.

CIN: Brandon Phillips - .301/.347/.495

• Phillips had an offensive explosion in 2007, after having already posted solid numbers in '06. He has the tools to be one of the best second baseman in baseball, though a more patient approach at the plate wouldn't hurt. WAVE pegs him at .301/102/28/96/33 in 632 AB.

HOU: Kazuo Matsui - .274/.327/.397

• Kaz was an ironman in Japan, not missing a single game from 1997-2003. It's been a completely different story in MLB, where Matsui has missed time with an injury every season. Will this be the year Matsui stays healthy and posts 600 AB at the top of the HOU order? Probably not, but you'd think the law of averages would be in his favour at this point. Little Matsui would have a solid shot at 50 SB if he managed to reach that plateau... something to keep in mind. WAVE projects him to hit .274/83/5/44/29 in 441 AB.

MIL: Rickie Weeks - .248/.367/.430

• The skills that made Weeks the second overall pick in the 2003 draft are certainly still there, but they have yet to transfer over to paper. WAVE is calling for more AB, and therefore better counting stats from Rickie in '08: .248/103/19/49/29 in 512 AB.

PIT: Freddy Sanchez - .315/.353/.446

• Sanchez is much better suited to second base for fantasy purposes, but that he no longer qualifies at third does take away some of his fantasy value. Leagues with lax eligibility rules need to take note of Sanchez's 1 game played at SS in '07. WAVE sees a .315/78/9/75/1 line in 590 AB.

STL: Adam Kennedy - .247/.305/.328

• Kennedy has managed to get into manager Tony LaRussa's dog house before Spring Training has even begun. LaRussa stated that the Cardinals won't have the same margin for error when it comes to sticking with Kennedy at second. It wouldn't be surprising to see Kennedy supplanted by Aaron Miles at some point. WAVE: .247/36/3/29/11 in 348 AB.

STL: Aaron Miles - .285/.326/.350

• For whatever reason, Tony LaRussa seems enamored with Miles. Add in the fact that Adam Kennedy is in LaRussa's bad book, and Miles could get a fair share of AB's in '08. WAVE is projecting .285/50/2/31/3 in 397 AB.

Ride The WAVE - NL East Second Basemen

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

ATL: Kelly Johnson - .290/.391/.478

• With the departure of Edgar Renteria to DET, and subsequent shift of Yunel Escobar to SS, Johnson no longer has to share playing time at second. His OBP bat sits best atop the Braves lineup, and he should score plenty of runs while hitting with good pop, and providing a handful of steals. Still only 26 years old. WAVE: .290/108/20/82/10 in 579 AB.

FLA: Dan Uggla - .258/.331/.480

• Uggla could very well be moved to third base in Spring Training to accomodate Jose Castillo at second. Either way, he'll qualify at second in 2008, but keeper league owners may want to consider selling high and trading him before the year is gone, and his second base eligibility goes with it. WAVE projects .258/111/30/89/3 in 625 AB.

NYM: Luis Castillo - .300/.368/.363

• If only he were still a threat to steal 40 bags. Castillo still provides a good AVG, and a healthy amount of runs scored. WAVE sees him hitting .300/90/2/41/19 in 557 AB.

PHI: Chase Utley - .313/.392/.541

• The cream of the crop, Utley was unfortunately limited to 132 games in '07 after breaking his right hand on a HBP in July. WAVE: .313/120/28/116/14 in 636 AB.

WAS: Felipe Lopez - .275/.346/.404

• WAVE foresees a return to 2006 form (though, without the steals) from Lopez in '08. Hitting in the new Nationals ballpark should help him achieve his projection: .275/90/13/64/30 in 601 AB.

Ride The WAVE - AL West First Basemen

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

LAA: Casey Kotchman - .309/.386/.494

• Inexplicably, there are those who will overvalue Kotchman in just about every league. A fine ballplayer, but not a great fantasy first baseman in mixed leagues. Kendry Morales figures to cut into some of Kotchman's playing time until one of them begins to show the power stroke coveted by MLB organizations. WAVE: .309/74/15/81/2 in 492 AB.

OAK: Daric Barton - .273/.362/.436

• Dan Johnson and Daric Barton figure to split playing time between 1B and DH, with Johnson getting the occasional game in the OF. Barton is yet another power-lacking first baseman, who should be able to hit for a decent AVG after making some adjustments to MLB pitching. His WAVE calls for a .273/68/10/50/2 line in 440 AB.

OAK: Dan Johnson - .249/.352/.431

• Johnson appeared to be a consistent 30 HR threat in the making during his minor league tenure, but hasn't developed as hoped at the major league level. A torn labrum in his left hip may have been partially to blame for his poor '07, but he's quickly running out of excuses, and chances. WAVE pegs him at .249/49/16/56/0 in 378 AB for 2008.

SEA: Richie Sexson - .247/.334/.475

• If drafting Richie, you'll need to make sure you have a high AVG hitter on your roster as well, to compensate for Sexson's poor batting average. His long swing has always made him prone to strike outs, and if it is indeed slowing down, we may have already seen the last 30 HR season of his career. On the bright side, injuries slowed him down in '07 (he should be fully healthy entering 2008), and it was only two years ago that Sexson batted .264 with 34 HR. WAVE is projecting .247/76/30/92/1 in 547 AB.

TEX: Ben Broussard - .261/.309/.425

• With Saltalamacchia's move to catcher, the first base job is Broussard's to lose. WAVE: .261/52/16/56/3 in 433 AB.

Ride The WAVE - AL Central First Basemen

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

CHW: Paul Konerko - .276/.361/.514

• Konerko is a safe bet for 30 HR, and the AVG should bounce back a bit. WAVE: .276/83/34/97/0 in 558 AB.

CLE: Ryan Garko - .316/.387/.525

• WAVE sees a pretty solid season from Garko in '08. It remains to be seen if he will show us 30 HR power going forward but a .912 OPS is solid nonetheless. .316/81/25/87/0 in 560 AB.

DET: Carlos Guillen - .310/.374/.504

• The best thing about Guillen for 2008, is that he retains his SS eligibility, having played most (132 games) of last season there. WAVE is calling for .310/90/19/90/13 in 558 AB.

KC: Ross Gload - .293/.322/.432

• KC seems to be done with the Ryan Shealy experiment, and Billy Butler is likely to DH. That leaves Gload alone at 1B. He's an OK one year stopgap for the Royals, but shouldn't be anything more than a CI in AL only leagues for fantasy purposes. WAVE projects a .293/56/10/72/6 line in 444 AB.

MIN: Justin Morneau - .278/.346/.499

• The 2006 AL MVP's batting average should stay in the .280 range going forward. Solid power and run production numbers are a given. WAVE: .278/87/31/114/1 in 593 AB.

Ride The WAVE - AL East First Basemen

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

BAL: Aubrey Huff - .275/.337/.449

• Huff and Millar are likely to split time between DH and 1B in BAL, with Jay Gibbons getting any leftover AB's. Huff's HR totals have decreased every year since 2003 - 34, 29, 22, 21, and finally 15 in 2007. He's not someone to bid aggressively for. WAVE is calling for .275/66/18/76/2 in 534 AB.

BAL: Kevin Millar - .263/.367/.422

• Mediocre batsman continues to get a lot of playing time for the O's. WAVE projects Millar for 460 AB, with a .263/62/15/61/1 line.

BOS: Kevin Youkilis - .295/.401/.450

• WAVE sees the Greek God of Walks raising his average in '08. Because he's never likely to hit for much power, his value is limited as a fantasy first baseman. .295/95/15/85/4 in 562 AB.

NYY: Wilson Betemit - .264/.349/.472

• I've previously listed Jason Giambi as a DH, and Betemit figures to get what playing time remains at first base. He should rebound from his awful 2007 season, and if he managed to get 500 AB, he would be a major sleeper for 25 HR on the cheap. WAVE: .264/54/18/65/1 in 371 AB.

TB: Carlos Pena - .264/.383/.562

• The power is for real, the average probably is not. I'm likely to be one of the few sites to publicly admit this, but I could see Pena posting a 1.000 OPS again. He's the classic example of a highly touted prospect with all the tools, who figures it all out a little later than expected. WAVE pegs him at .264/104/44/119/2 in 537 AB.

TOR: Lyle Overbay - .276/.352/.442

• Fully healthy, Overbay should resume hitting like he did prior to '07. WAVE projects a .276/79/18/75/3 line in 559 AB.

Ride The WAVE - NL West First Basemen

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

ARI: Conor Jackson - .289/.373/.465

• A full seasons worth of AB make the counting stats more palatable, but until, or unless, the power spikes, Jackson is nothing more than the new Mark Grace. WAVE projects .289/80/19/86/3 in 557 AB.

COL: Todd Helton - .318/.432/.506

• The power isn't coming back, so don't bid like it might. In OBP leagues, Helton is a must own at 1B, and the budding Rockie lineup should provide plenty of opportunities for RBI and Runs scored. WAVE: .318/90/18/87/1 in 544 AB.

LAD: James Loney - .307/.357/.512

• Much of 2007's high OBP was boosted by Loney's .331 AVG, a mark he's unlikely to maintain over a full season. Loney has been in the Dodgers organization for so long (he was drafted in the 1st round of the 2002 amateur draft), that it's easy to forget that he's still only 23. He should improve on these numbers in '09 and beyond, and better strike zone judgement would all but ensure an AVG back up around his 2007 figure. WAVE pegs him at .307/75/26/110/2 in 615 AB.

SD: Adrian Gonzalez - .294/.357/.512

• WAVE projects Loney and Gonzalez to be virtually the same player in 2008, but with the potential for much higher batting averages, Loney is the guy you want in fantasy. Still, Adrian's offensive output is nothing to sneeze at, and he's still only 25. Has his power reached it's peak? .294/97/29/97/0 in 619 AB.

SF: Dan Ortmeier - .242/.284/.376

• The fact that SF has yet to address their corner infield situation is simply pathetic. The other option for 1B is Rich Aurilia, but as of right now, he looks like the best bet to start at 3B, leaving first for Ortmeier. Avoid in all but the deepest of NL only leagues. WAVE sees a .242/52/10/44/8 line in 380 AB.

Ride The WAVE - NL Central First Basemen

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

CHC: Derrek Lee - .312/.398/.534

• The power outburst Lee showed in 2005 was likely an aberration, never to be seen again. He's still a valuable commodity in fantasy circles, and reminds me (at least his stat lines do) a bit of Todd Helton: good averages with decent power and run production. WAVE likes him for .312/104/29/94/11 in 586 AB.

CIN: Joey Votto - .307/.355/.495

• Your 2008 NL ROY? Votto will have to beat out Scott Hatteberg for playing time at first base in 2008, what should amount to an easy task. Still, this projection could certainly bite me in the ass if CIN gets greedy, and tries to build up Hatteberg's trade value by playing him regularly. If winning games is the priority, there's no good reason not to hand first base to Joey, as he's clearly the superior ballplayer. WAVE: .307/79/23/106/9 in 560 AB.

HOU: Lance Berkman - .292/.401/.538

• Berkman's numbers have been up and down for most of his career, but even in the down years, he's usually good for a .900 OPS. His 32 games played in the OF make him elegible there in most leagues, adding to his value. WAVE is projecting a .292/92/34/106/6 line in 535 AB for 2008.

MIL: Prince Fielder - .294/.392/.597

• I for one, was routing for Prince to hit 51 HR in '07, and match his father's (Cecil) mark from 17 years prior, in 1990. He fell one shy. It's scary to think that the younger Fielder still has room to improve at merely 23 years of age. He'll need to be wary of his weight as he ages, but otherwise is a safe bet to continue launching HR over the Miller Park right field wall, for years to come. WAVE sees him hitting .294/100/44/110/4 in 558 AB.

PIT: Adam LaRoche - .276/.346/.481

• Steady. Decent. Unspectacular. Boring. Pick your adjective and expect more of the same from LaRoche in 2008. If he isn't traded at some point in the upcoming year, he'll have to hope that Steven Pearce takes well to the OF, or risk losing his starting job to the young slugger. GM Neal Huntington has said that Pearce will start the season in AAA to receive regular AB's, but keep an eye on this situation, especially in keeper leagues. WAVE pegs LaRoche at .276/72/23/87/0 in 522 AB.

STL: Albert Pujols - .330/.430/.606

• Despite a down year in 2007, many of Pujols' peripherals looked consistent with previous seasons. Barring injury, there's no reason not to expect a resurgence: .330/110/39/114/6 in 564 AB.

Ride The WAVE - NL East First Basemen

As with all of the posts, if you see a player that is not projected, and would like him to be, simply let me know in the comments section. AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

ATL: Mark Teixeira - .293/.382/.544

• Big Tex actually saw his numbers improve upon his move away from hitter friendly Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. It will be interesting to see what happens with a larger sample size in the NL in '08. WAVE calls for a .293/101/36/123/1 line in 607 AB.

FLA: Mike Jacobs - .277/.331/.497

• WAVE likes Jacobs to improve across the board in his age 27 season. The numbers still aren't outstanding, and Jacobs has had difficulty racking up a full season of AB in his short career. .277/62/22/69/1 in 463 AB.

NYM: Carlos Delgado - .269/.354/.499

• Delgado's best days are behind him, and a .300 AVG seems unlikely to ever happen again. Still, playing on a top offensive club will help him rack up RBI, even as his skills decline. WAVE: .269/77/29/99/2 in 531 AB.

PHI: Ryan Howard - .286/.399/.603

• Howard's 2006 season may turn out to be the best of his career when all is said and done. However, the fact that he managed 47 HR in only 529 AB in '07, means another 50 HR season is possible, if not probable. WAVE projects him to hit .286/101/50/143/0 in 567 AB in 2008.

WAS: Nick Johnson - .288/.425/.493

• Johnson will apparently be ready to go on opening day. It remains to be seen how playing time in WAS will be divided up, and how Nick will adjust to such a long layoff. The move to a better hitting environment in '08 should help Johnson's adjustment. WAVE pegs him at .288/73/16/62/7 in 379 AB.

WAS: Dmitri Young - .309/.366/.475

• It's not often the aging veteran wins out in a battle for playing time, but Young showed what he is capable of in 2007, and was rewarded with a two year contract extension through 2009. WAS clearly likes his leadership in the clubhouse, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Young accrue the 398 AB WAVE has projected him at, between 1B, the OF, and DH at away interleague games: .309/51/12/64/1

SFB’s Q&A, featuring Tim Dierkes

(SFB’s Q&A will be a semi-regular segment where I will interview people in the fantasy baseball business. I am proud to announce that Tim Dierkes has agreed to be the first person featured here at Science Fiction Baseball.)

Tim Dierkes is the brains behind both MLB Trade Rumors; a website devoted to trades, trade rumors, and free agent signings, and Roto Authority; a site devoted to anything and everything fantasy. Science Fiction Baseball recently had the opportunity to interview him about his webpages, the Cubs, and his incredible run of success. Here are the results:


SFB: When did your obsession with trades and trade rumors begin?
Tim: Maybe junior high, though it was a lot harder to get up to the minute transaction info before the Internet became widespread.

SFB: What made you decide to start up MLBTR?
Tim: Just the search for a productive hobby (I had been into online poker previously).

SFB: Did you have inside sources prior to setting up MLBTR, or did sources seek you out once you got the site running?
Tim: Definitely did not have sources when I started and even now I don't have a ton. Mostly they come to me.

SFB: As far as unique page visits go, when did MLBTR hit its peak, and just how big was the number exactly?
Tim: December 4th, 2007 - second day of the Winter Meetings. 736,530 pageviews, 307,803 visits, 109,539 absolute uniques.

SFB: Are you at all surprised at the success of MLBTR?
Tim: Very much so, I am incredibly lucky.

SFB: Has any of the success you've had gone to your head? How do you stay grounded?
Tim: I would hope not. I don't know, I just write every day.

SFB: How many hours a day do you spend at a computer?
Tim: 10-12 on weekdays, maybe 2-3 on weekends.

SFB: Are you comfortable with where you are, or do you have other career aspirations? If so, what are they?
Tim: I like what I am doing but I need to settle into a routine. It hasn't been a month yet working at home and I don't know how to best structure my days. I like the idea of getting better connected to be able to supply legit exclusive rumors. I'd like to stay independent.

SFB: As far as a trade being even, or mutually beneficial for both teams involved, what in your opinion, was the best trade this offseason? On the flipside, which trade was the worst, or most lopsided?
Tim: Best trade might be Delmon Young for Matt Garza, that is a deal that shifts around surpluses and helps both teams. the Nationals' acquisition of Milledge seemed lopsided.

SFB: In early December, you reported that a three-team deal that would net MIN Dan Haren, send Johan Santana to the Mets, and Jose Reyes to the A's was in the works. A's GM Billy Beane would later publicly deny the rumor. Professionalism aside for a moment here... how cool was it to have a GM deny a trade rumor that started on your site? How do you distinguish between legitimate and bogus trade rumors?
Tim: It was very embarrassing but I was surprised by how quickly it traveled. I usually have a pretty good BS detector. I have gotten smarter about getting a second and third opinion from informed people when an exclusive rumor comes to me (which is rare, anyway).

SFB: Will the Johan Santana madness ever end? Where do you see him playing by opening day?
Tim: Hopefully within a week. My call is the Red Sox.

SFB: Do you have a love-hate relationship with projecting out hundreds of players stat lines?
Tim: It's awesome to have once it's done but it's really time-consuming. I am trying a more automated approach this year.

SFB: How many fantasy leagues are you currently in?
Tim: Last year I did five.

SFB: What was your best fantasy finish in 2007?
Tim: I got first in two of the five.

SFB: What are your best and worst fantasy team names?
Tim: One time I thought we were putting in our real names and not team names and hence my team was called The Tim for several years. Somehow that seems both the best and worst.

SFB: What would the perfect fantasy league look like to you?
Tim: My current keeper league. 12 guys who are just really into it. A live auction each year. Live meaning in person. Calling people to make trades instead of emailing.

SFB: Who is your favourite 2008 breakout candidate? Player most likely to be a bust in '08?
Tim: Dustin McGowan, unless '07 counts as a breakout. I think Joba might be disappointing for some.

SFB: Saves: bid agressively, or punt at the draft and pick up in-season?
Tim: The latter, or maybe pick up one closer.

SFB: Any idea how many copies of your Roto Authority projections were sold in '07?
Tim: 1380.

SFB: Do you worry about effecting your own draft day by publishing your strategies and thoughts online?
Tim: A little bit. But then I realize that most people would not blindly use my rankings without tweaking. But they do know what I am thinking and who my sleepers are. I still usually get the guys I want.

SFB: It wouldn’t be a proper Tim Dierkes interview without some Cubs related questions. Who has the better curve ball, Rich Hill or Barry Zito?
Tim: HILL.

SFB: Over/under on Fukudome hitting 20 HR?
Tim: Under.

SFB: Is this the year for the Cubs?
Tim: Of course.

SFB: Who closes for CHC in '08? '09?
Tim: Wood/Howry '08, Marmol '09.

SFB: What is your projected Cubs lineup?
Tim: I know Lou put out his actual lineup but here's what I would do: 1 Fukudome 2 DeRosa 3 Lee 4 Ramirez 5 Soriano 6 Soto 7 Cedeno 8 Pie.

SFB: What are your thoughts on Lou Piniella?
Tim: Seems fine, I liked the way he didn't stick too long with underperformers last year. Sometimes entertaining.

SFB: Let's settle the debate once and for all. Andre Dawson: Hall of Famer?
Tim: No.

SFB: Did Geovany Soto finally break out in '07, or was his stat line a mirage?
Tim: He won't post a 1.100 OPS but a solid .800 seems possible.

SFB: I've been to Wrigley once, and the only stadium that even comes remotely close to the experience I had there, was Fenway. How many games do you attend at Wrigley a year? How would you describe your experiences there?
Tim: Maybe 10 a year. Experiences have ranged from super cold to the perfect day. I like to sit in the first 15 rows but that is getting way too pricey. It is a unique experience, especially just not having a jumbotron and lame player intro songs.

SFB: Who were your Favourite Cubbies growing up?
Tim: Ryne Sandberg, Terry Mulholland, Mark Grace, and Jody Davis.

SFB: CDs you've been listening to lately?
Tim: The Audition, Harvey Danger's first album, Nerf Herder, Anberlin.

SFB: Is HUM a legendary Champaign band, or am I showing my age here?
Tim: They were a bit before my time. At least you didn't say REO Speedwagon. When I went there the Red Hot Valentines seemed to play every weekend. Absinthe Blind was kinda popular.

SFB: how smooth was the adjustment to working at home? What do you miss most about your old job?
Tim: It has been rockier than I expected. I thought it would be all fun and games but I am more stressed than I was and don't seem to have free time somehow. But then I step back and realize it is still awesome. I miss the camaraderie and human interaction of being in an office. And they had free pizza on Tuesdays.

Thanks to Tim for answering all of my questions. Be sure to check out his great work at rotoauthority.com, and mlbtraderumors.com.

Player Eligibility

Of all the websites I've listed on the sidebar under "Highly Recommended Websites", Scouting Book is quite possibly the one you haven't heard of. Until now that is. It's growing quickly, with over 200 prospects ranked in order for 2008 including write-ups, a 2008 closer watch, and articles on the main page, all updated regularly. I hinted in my previous post about the advantages of multi-positional eligibility. New on Scouting Book, is a Multiple Position Eligibility tool, that allows you to pick the number of games needed to qualify at a position, and sorts all the players out accordingly. Very cool, and quite handy. Check it out. Scouting Book is fast becoming one of my favourite websites.

Ride The WAVE - Designated Hitters

Assuming eligibilty rules of 20 games played in 2007, the following players will be DH-only in 2008. To accomodate for leagues with more lenient eligibility rules, I've put each players games played at positions other than DH in parentheses. As always, statistics are listed as follows AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

BOS: David Ortiz (1B - 7) - .313/.425/.617

• It will take a top draft pick to net the consistent slugger, but it will be worth it. In many respects his '07 was as good as A-Rod's. WAVE projects .313/116/42/128/2 in 562 AB from Ortiz.

NYY: Jason Giambi (1B - 18) - .242/.387/.473

• Yankees GM Brian Cashman admitted that he didn't foresee Giambi playing first base regularly in 2008, so are we to believe that Hideki Matsui will be benched so Giambi can DH regularly? AB may be hard to come by for the aging slugger, but it's likely Damon, Matsui, and Giambi will all rotate through the DH spot. WAVE is only placing Giambi at 393 AB, with a .240/52/21/63/1 line.

TOR: Frank Thomas - .284/.387/.498

• The Big Hurt's fine career is winding down. How many more seasons will he give us? Chances are he'll come cheaply enough in fantasy drafts, that he will provide good value in return. WAVE sees a .284/59/23/88/0 line in 422 AB.

CHW: Jim Thome (1B - 1) - .277/.411/.562

• Leagues with very lax eligibility rules need to take note of the one game played at first in '07. WAVE: .277/86/36/99/0 in 452 AB.

CLE: Travis Hafner (1B - 11) - .299/.420/.555

• While accruing 59 AB more in 2007 than his previous career high, Pronk mysteriously posted his worst offensive season since becoming a regular. A big rebound is likely: .299/92/32/112/0 in 512 AB.

DET: Gary Sheffield (OF - 12) - .281/.383/.485

• You can bank on Sheff not swiping 22 bags again. That number tied the second highest total of his career, from way back in '98 (his career high was 25 in 1990). Aside from that, look for more of the same. Obviously much more valuable if OF eligible in your league. WAVE pegs him at .281/109/29/93/12 in 538 AB.

KC: Billy Butler (1B - 13, OF - 6) - .311/.366/.490

• Only 22, it's scary to think that the power is still developing. It's too late to buy low in keeper leagues, but don't be afraid to bid aggressively in any format, especially those where his 1B and OF eligibilty carry over from '07. WAVE is projecting .311/78/19/99/0 in 578 AB.

SEA: Jose Vidro (1B - 11, 2B - 10) - .295/.357/.388

• Not a bad gamble as your middle infielder, but a lousy DH for sure. WAVE: .295/65/7/52/0 in 526 AB.

Ride The WAVE - AL West Catchers

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

LAA: Mike Napoli - .236/.352/.444

• His poor batting averages are balanced out be decent on base percentages, and Napoli has solid raw power. It's debatable if Mathis will ever live up to the hype and take over full time duty. Napoli is projected at .236/63/18/54/6 in 356 AB by WAVE.

OAK: Kurt Suzuki - .258/.349/.402

• More of a placeholder than a top notch prospect, Suzuki should be serviceable for the A's. WAVE pegs him at .258/52/10/59/3 in 368 AB.

SEA: Kenji Johjima - .301/.342/.463

• Johjima's strong 2003-2005 NPB numbers suggest a .300 season is a possibility, and he appeared likely to make the threshhold through much of 2006. WAVE is projecting a rebound year for Kenji at .301/61/17/73/1 in 492 AB.

TEX: Jarrod Saltalamacchia - .272/.330/.440

• Rangers GM Jon Daniels indicated in late November that he foresees Saltalamacchia as a full-time catcher in 2008. This is great news for fantasy owners. Salty will only be 22 in '08, so expect some growing pains behind, and at, the dish. WAVE: .272/58/17/58/1 in 459 AB.

Ride The WAVE - AL Central Catchers

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:


CHW: A.J. Pierzynski - .268/.315/.411

• WAVE projects a .268/58/15/54/1 line from A.J. in 477 AB.

CLE: Victor Martinez - .305/.378/.490

• A consistent offensive threat, only steals keep V-Mart behind Russell Martin in positional rankings. CLE has talked about moving Martinez off of catcher in the past, but with the emergence of Garko, and Pronk mashing at DH, there doesn't seem to be anywhere else to put him at this point. Still, keep an eye on Kelly Shoppach, who has decent power for the position, and pounce if a move is made. WAVE: .305/78/22/102/0 in 561 AB.

DET: Ivan Rodriguez - .272/.289/.411

• With speed on the decline (only two steals in '07), and two of the last three seasons with an OBP below .300, it appears the aging Rodriguez is on the decline. Still, someone in your league will overpay for I-Rod based on past accomplishments - don't let it be you. WAVE sees .272/54/11/55/4 in 497 AB in '08.

KC: John Buck - .244/.320/.440

• A former prized Astros farmhand, Buck has some competition in '08 in the form of Miguel Olivo. They aren't all too dissimilar players, but Buck has the greater upside, and a better power stroke, making him the favourite for AB's. WAVE sees some improvement in '08, with a .244/48/19/61/1 line in 414 AB.

KC: Miguel Olivo - .242/.270/.398

• Olivo never did develop as hoped by the White Sox, and has bounced around through a few organizations since. He'll try to develop his niche as a backup/platoon partner in KC in '08. Though Buck and Olivo both bat RH, Olivo did hit better against lefties, with Buck hitting better against righties, in '07. Olivo's WAVE: .242/27/8/35/3 in 256 AB.

MIN: Joe Mauer - .318/.406/.460

• Will MIN eventually pull Mauer from behind the plate to prevent all the nagging injuries? Mauer proved in '06 that when healthy, he's one of the best in the game. WAVE projects .318/83/11/78/10 in 509 AB.

Ride The WAVE - AL East Catchers

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

BAL: Ramon Hernandez - .266/.329/.420

• A return to 2006 levels seems unlikely, though Hernandez shouldn't have any difficulty improving on his poor 2007. WAVE: .266/44/13/67/1 in 395 AB.

BOS: Jason Varitek - .260/.361/.433

• Not the same kind of leader on fantasy rosters as he is on the diamond for the Sox, Varitek still provides good pop at a thin position, though most likely at a premium price due to name recognition. WAVE projects Varitek at .260/58/17/66/1 in 427 AB.

NYY: Jorge Posada - .280/.381/.471

• Most pundits are accurately projecting the lofty .338 AVG of 2007 to drop off the table, but just how far is up in the air. Despite being 36 years old, Posada has improved at the plate three years running. That trend will end in 2008, as WAVE sees him hitting .280/72/21/87/2 in 490 AB.

TB: Dioner Navarro - .249/.315/.377

• A seemingly popular preseason breakout pick, anyone who has projected said breakout must be doing so based on the strong set of skills Navarro undoubtedly possesses, as it's just not likely based on the numbers. Navarro hit like a top prospect in 2003 between A/AA, but didn't before, and hasn't since. Often, players with tools will stumble along for quite some time before everything suddenly clicks (Jose Guillen comes to mind), so it's certainly possible for Navarro to put it all together in 2008. I just wouldn't bet on it. Navarro's WAVE: .249/50/10/46/3 in 414 AB.

TOR: Gregg Zaun - .249/.348/.412

• Zaun has been steady, if unspectacular, the last three seasons. It will be interesting to see if Zaun's age, and inclusion in the Mitchell Report, will have any effect on his play in '08. Fantasy players will have to keep a close eye on this situation, as well as the progress of prospect Curtis Thigpen. WAVE projects a .249/46/11/51/1 line in 345 AB.

Ride The WAVE - NL West Catchers

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

ARI: Chris Snyder - .275/.371/.448

• WAVE sees continued progress from Snyder in his age 27 season. It's a make or break season for both Snyder and Montero, as ARI figures out which direction to go in heading forward. .275/34/11/44/0 in 295 AB.

ARI: Miguel Montero - .242/.311/.423

• Considered a future cornerstone at the position by ARI a couple of years ago, Snyder's progress has created some question marks about the future at catcher for the D-Backs. The lefty masher figures to take away some AB's versus righty's from Snyder in 2008. WAVE projects slight improvements across the board, with a .242/35/12/47/0 line in 248 AB.

COL: Yorvit Torrealba - .261/.327/.392

• Has he been brought back to mentor Chris Iannetta? Or was he re-signed due to lack of faith in the youngster? Only time will tell, but projecting AB in COL was a difficult task, and it could certainly go either way. .261/40/7/41/2 in 314 AB.

COL: Chris Iannetta - .238/.355/.368

• It's time for Iannetta to start proving his worth, or he'll disappear into the realm of Failed Rockie Catching Prospects, alongside the likes of Ben Petrick, Garret Gentry, and J.D. Closser. WAVE doesn't see it happening in 2008: .238/27/4/31/0 in 223 AB.

LAD: Russell Martin - .309/.391/.498

• These numbers seem aggressive considering the toll playing catcher takes on the body, but with fewer projected AB's (and therefore, more time to rest) than in 2007, they are within reach for the young canuck. WAVE: .309/84/18/84/19 in 492 AB.

SD: Michael Barrett - .263/.315/.426

• Barrett figures to get the majority of the playing time in SD in an effort to build up his trade value. Whether the Padres will find any takers is another story. Barrett's WAVE: .263/38/12/48/1 in 369 AB.

SF: Bengie Molina - .285/.314/.446

• The consistent Molina doesn't get the love he deserves in fantasy circles. With the current state of catching in MLB, Bengie easily slides into the top 10 catchers list. His WAVE sees more of the same in 2008: .285/41/18/74/0

Ride The WAVE - NL Central Catchers

AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

CHC: Geovany Soto - .273/.315/.464

• WAVE has some of the power, but none of the average, transfering over from the hitter friendly PCL. .273/58/16/51/0 in 425 AB.

CIN: David Ross - .227/.301/.449

• An all or nothing player, it's only a matter of time before CIN gets fed up with the sub-.300 OBP's. WAVE has Ross at: .227/30/15/38/0 in 256 AB.

CIN: Javier Valentin - .279/.337/.429

• Valentin continues to put up solid batting averages, but where has the power gone? Valentin's home run totals have fallen from 14 in 2005, all the way down to 2 in 2007. .279/24/6/37/0 in 226 AB.

HOU: J.R. Towles - .253/.301/.408

• While Justin is likely to struggle in his first full season in the Majors, he figures to become a quality backstop in time. Ausmus should cut into some of Towles' AB's while mentoring him in 2008. WAVE pegs J.R. for a .253/43/10/63/10 line in 363 AB. 10 steals out of your catcher is nothing to sneeze at.

HOU: Brad Ausmus - .238/.322/.323

• Ausmus will see the occasional start while mentoring Towles in 2008. The 39 year old's best days are clearly behind him, and he's someone to avoid in fantasy leagues. WAVE: .238/19/2/17/3 in only 189 AB.

MIL: Jason Kendall - .258/.324/.317

• The homers are long gone, and the steals are fading. Kendall is quite possibly the oldest 33 year old in baseball. WAVE projects .258/57/2/45/6 in 515 AB.

PIT: Ronny Paulino - .305/.363/.435

• Paulino has a lot to prove in 2008, and seems poised to make a slight comeback. Lets not forget that Ronny batted .306 with 19 HR in 2005 between AA/AAA. WAVE agrees, though the average does look a tad high, even considering a potential breakout: .305/58/11/64/1 in 453 AB.

PIT: Ryan Doumit - .280/.363/.489

• Some will be surprised to see that Doumit played in 28 games at catcher in 2008, making him catcher eligible in virtually every league. Health is always a concern with Doumit, and there doesn't seem to be anywhere to play him in PIT. If he can muster the 325 AB WAVE has him projected at, Doumit will return some value on the dollar at catcher. .280/44/13/47/1

STL: Yadier Molina - .254/.314/.348

• Yadier has yet to develop the power stroke of brother Bengie, and unfortunately, defence doesn't count in standard roto leagues. The .275 AVG was a nice surprise last year, but I'll need to see it again to believe it was more than a blip on the radar. WAVE: .254/31/6/44/1 in 374 AB.

Thanks to RotoAuthority.com for the Paulino link.

Ride The WAVE - NL East Catchers

To keep the posts coming, I've decided to split the projections up by division. As with last time, the format is AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

ATL: Brian McCann - .277/.330/.468

• McCann has age and skills on his side, so he could certainly blow right by this projection. Right now though, 2006 is looking like the anomaly. McCann's WAVE: .277/54/20/88/1 in 494 AB.

FLA: Matt Treanor - .255/.344/.366

• Treanor and Rabelo figure to comprise the worst catching tandem (offensively anyway) in MLB in 2008. Stay away in all but the deepest of NL only leagues. WAVE has Treanor at .255/24/5/30/0 in 279 AB.

FLA: Mike Rabelo - .263/.297/.401

• As the younger of the two, and splits indicating success on the weak side of a platoon, Rabelo figures to play less than Treanor. Rabelo's WAVE: .263/15/4/20/0 in 217 AB.

NYM: Brian Schneider - .248/.325/.378

• Without RFK to call home, and a better supporting cast surrounding him in the lineup, Schneider should see a bit of a renaissance in 2008. Schneider's WAVE: .248/38/10/62/1

PHI: Carlos Ruiz - .274/.350/.426

• WAVE sees Ruiz improving across the board in 2008. A fine end-game flier at a very thin position, Ruiz is projected to hit .274/49/9/64/6

WAS: Paul Lo Duca - .285/.325/.391

• Luckily for Lo Duca, the new stadium in Washington is projected to be much friendlier to hitters than RFK was. WAVE has Lo Duca at .285/53/8/53/3

Helllloooo Newman!

While I'm finishing up my NL catcher list, lets get a Mailbag going. Feel free to ask me any baseball related questions. In time, this will be a weekly feature entitled, you guessed it, "Helllloooo Newman!" My affinity for Seinfeld will never waver.

sciencefictionbaseball@hotmail.com

Free Agent Catchers

The FA catcher pile is much worse than I had realized. Additionally, most teams seem pretty set at catcher. Florida could certainly use an upgrade, but when a $2.5 MM Kevin Gregg is the most expensive player on the team, spending money on a FA catcher seems like a stretch. Please note that with these players' status in flux, projected AB totals my be skewed, and park effects and supporting cast could not be taken into consideration. I've projected three below, and the truth is, all three are likely to be useless in fantasy baseball leagues (AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB):

Mike Piazza - .267/.318/.438

• WAVE has Piazza down for a .267/36/13/52/0 line in 349 AB. Personally, I feel it's likely Piazza has played his last MLB game. He's also not catcher eligible anymore, but has expressed an interest in catching somewhere in 2008.

Damian Miller - .247/.302/.365

• Miller is also likely on his way out. If he does play in 2008, it most likely won't be to the tune of the 263 AB projected here. .247/28/5/30/0

Rod Barajas - .226/.293/.383

• At 32, Barajas should pick up a gig as a backup, or, if he's lucky, a platoon position, somewhere. WAVE has him at .226/29/8/26/0

What To Do With This Info

Any website that advertises itself as 'the only resource you need to dominate your league' or some such nonsense, is, quite frankly, full of shit. The best methodology to employ is one of an all-embracing nature. Review the WAVE projections, as well as those from several different sources, including rotoauthority.com, and compare and contrast. Your own intuition should also come into play. In the end, the answer almost always lies somewhere in the middle. Enjoy the following sets of projections, and please comment. For 2008, I will compare the WAVE projections with the projections from Tim Dierkes over at rotoauthority.com. After the 2008 season, and some tweaking to my formulas, I'll possess a little more confidence in comparing the 2009 WAVE projections with some other well known sites, including ZIPS, and PECOTA, next year.

Marketing

Every projection system needs a pet name. Off the top of my head, I can think of two reasons for why this is necessary:

• First and foremost is brand recognition. A simple, yet memorable name will keep people coming back.
• The second is simply a provision for a loophole, and a means of detaching the work from the author. For example, "PECOTA really doesn't view Shaun Marcum as anything more than a fourth starter." Instantly, blame is removed from the author, and placed on the projection system. Brilliant! Friends and family of Shaun Marcum need not post angry comments, as the author is innocent.

For the record my projection system will officially be called WAVE, for the extensive use of (w)eighted (ave)rages throughout my formulas. If this name has for some reason been taken, please, someone notify me in the comments section with a link to the original website.

I'm still working away on my list of NL catchers. I'm not much of a whiz with Excel, and I'm manually transfering my formulas from paper. In the meantime, I've decided to put a small post up featuring FA catchers.

What to do?

It seems like a rather tall order, but I plan to start off the site with player projections. First up will be NL catchers. I will post projections for starters, and platoon partners, based on a standard 5x5 league. I don't plan on projecting dollar values, as I find that every league has various levels of inflation, and bidding skews prices based on individual team needs. Really, dollar value is an excercise best performed by the individual team owner. Any omitted projections can be requested in the comments section.

Welcome to Science Fiction Baseball

In an effort to minimize the nerdy stigma attached to Fantasy Baseball, I've probably in fact, done nothing but reinforce the stereotype. Fantasy Baseball has long been a term that has not only drawn a raised eyebrow from the uninitiated, but has also irked me somewhat for the images that the word fantasy tends to conjure. A quick look in the dictionary only confirms these images. Fantasy is often described as unreal, fantastic, or imagined events. The real kicker: a supposition based on no solid foundation.

While, admittedly, there are certainly elements of Fantasy prevalent in Rotisserie Baseball, the term does the hobby a terrible injustice. The amount of reading, research, and intense mathematical formulae that go into a simple player projection belie the notions of supposition and Fantasy. Science is knowledge or study based on facts. Science Fiction utilizes scientific discoveries and facts as an integral part of the storyline. The point really is this: Rotisserie Baseball is far more Scientific than Fantastic. This is a forum dedicated to discussing the great American Pastime in all contexts, with an emphasis on Science Fiction (Fantasy) Baseball.

Welcome.