ARI: Brandon Webb - 2.38/8.27/7.27
- The 2006 Cy Young award winner improved across the board in '07, but didn't receive any hardware to show for it. As the ace of a burgeoning high offense club, Webb should post high win totals, and be among the Cy finalists again in 2008. Not much to dislike here. WAVE: 3.27/16/0/189/1.184 in 234 IP.
- Haren gets another crack at the National League after coming over from the A's in the offseason alongside Connor Robertson, in exchange for Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham and Carlos Gonzalez. Haren has grown considerably as a pitcher since his days in a Cardinals uniform, and should continue to perform like an ace in 2008. WAVE sees him going 3.70/15/0/183/1.228 in 219 IP.
- Davis will undergo surgery for thyroid cancer after making two starts this season, and is expected to miss about six weeks before again joining the rotation. You have to admire Davis for making his first two starts of the season, and I'm sure he will work hard to come back as quickly as possible, but you have to think this will effect his game somewhat. WAVE is projecting 4.61/10/0/109/1.476 in 166 IP.
- Owings probably made more headlines last season with his bat than his arm (he batted .333 with 4 HR, 15 RBI, and a 1.032 OPS), but he's still a talented young pitcher. WAVE likes Owings to win a dozen games for the Baby Backs, going 4.33/12/0/132/1.337 in 187 IP.
- The 44 year old Johnson is on the shelf with a back injury for the second time in the last year. There's nothing wrong with taking a flier on Johnson, but expecting the kind of dominance he showed a few short years ago would be foolish. I'm skeptical he'll even pitch the projected 151 IP that WAVE has him at , but if nothing else, the rate stats should still hold up in '08, however small the innings total ends up being. 3.87/10/0/136/1.252 in 151 IP.
- The young Canuck will once again lead the Rockies staff in '08. Francis showed progression in his K rate last season, but simultaneously, regression in his hit rate. If he can bring the hits allowed total back down again, it would help convince me that last season's win total (17) was more than a fluke. WAVE projects 4.25/15/0/150/1.363 in 212 IP.
- The Rockies locked up Cook for four more years in the offseason, despite him having missed time with injury in '07. That's pretty telling that Colorado isn't concerned about the missed time going forward. WAVE has projected Aaron to go 4.20/10/0/90/1.391 in 197 IP.
- Despite electric stuff, Jimenez hasn't displayed as strong a K rate as one would expect. Combined with erratic control, Ubaldo looks to be a few years away from developing into the ace this years fantasy owners are coveting (assuming he ever develops into an ace). WAVE has him down for 4.89/12/0/159/1.505 in 206 IP.
- Redman made Colorado's rotation despite posting poor stats in Spring Training. More of the same should be expected in the regular season, and it would be a surprise to see him last the full season as a starter. WAVE: 5.63/4/0/53/1.510 in 96 IP.
- Much like Ubaldo Jimenez, Morales will need to harness his control in order to be effective at the Major League level. Should be a big time strike out pitcher if/when it happens. WAVE projects 4.45/10/0/128/1.412 in 182 IP.
- Penny made strides last season despite a fading K rate. Pitching in one of baseball's best pitching parks should help mask any inefficiencies that would otherwise be apparent. WAVE sees him going 3.83/15/0/147/1.307 in 202 IP.
- Derek has been very consistent since joining the Dodger rotation in 2005, posting an ERA between 3.61-3.89, and a WHIP between 1.252-1.269, every season. WAVE expects more of the same from Lowe, an underrated fantasy pitcher: 3.83/14/0/144/1.266 in 214 IP.
- An ace in the making, Chad suffers from the same ailment that plagues most young starters: the walk. If he gets his free passes under control, Billingsley would vault into the upper tier of pitchers, but in the meantime should be counted on for a solid ERA and excellent K rate. WAVE: 3.56/13/0/175/1.334 in 177 IP.
- Kuroda is a big time sleeper. For whatever reason, most fantasy sites haven't drawn upon the stark contrast in park effects that Kuroda is about to experience. Chavez Ravine, one of baseball's most pitching friendly parks, has dimensions of 330 ft to left, 395 ft to center, and 330 ft to right. Kuroda's former home park, Hiroshima Municipal Stadium, has dimensions of 300 ft to left, 380 ft to center, and 300 ft to right. A bandbox to say the least. The fact that Kuroda was able to post a 1.85 ERA in '06 while pitching half of his games in that park, speaks volumes to the kind of potential he possesses. Also, unlike other Japanese imports, control shouldn't be an issue at all with Hiroki. If LA pushes him too hard however, you may see him falter at seasons end. WAVE: 3.93/12/0/133/1.207 in 188 IP.
- Loaiza missed more than four months of '07 with a torn meniscus in his right knee, but is healthy to start the 2008 season. WAVE is projecting 4.65/9/0/111/1.329 in 155 IP.
- Schmidt is likely to miss a good portion of the season as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery. When he returns, he will likely bump Loaiza out of the rotation. Schmidt may be an option for '09, depending on how he performs once he returns this year. WAVE has him going 5.15/6/0/87/1.482 in 110 IP.
- Front line ace and potential Cy Young award winner. WAVE: 2.87/16/0/228/1.090 in 210 IP.
- Young is as unhittable as they come. If he could manage to cut back on the walks a bit, and break the 200 IP threshold, he would become a Cy Young candidate. His tall frame allows him to sneak high 80's fastballs at a different plane by batters time and again. WAVE is calling for 3.29/12/0/180/1.156 in 186 IP.
- Mad Dog gets away with allowing all those hits, by limiting the free passes he issues to virtually nil. Not what he once was, but the type of pitcher that ages well. WAVE: 4.28/14/0/111/1.280 in 200 IP.
- If Wolf can manage to stay healthy, he'll provide a decent amount of strike outs, and therefore, some fantasy value. WAVE: 4.57/8/0/119/1.417 in 132 IP.
- Germano proved in '07 that he's capable of being a back-of-the-rotation-guy for San Diego. He should eat up some innings for the Friars, and anyone pitching in Petco needs to be watched closely in fantasy circles. WAVE projects 4.48/10/0/115/1.303 in 195 IP.
- The general consensus seems to be that Zito is on the decline, and I tend to agree. He's looked awful in Spring Training, and a move to the NL has done nothing to help him out. Until he proves us wrong, it would be wise to stay away in fantasy leagues. WAVE has him down for a 4.39/13/0/143/1.318 line in 211 IP.
- Cain had a solid second year in the Giants rotation, despite not getting any run support at all (7-16 W-L). His strike out rate dropped in '07, but since all the other numbers improved, it's probably nothing to worry about. WAVE: 3.59/10/0/178/1.236 in 208 IP.
- Posted an elite K rate in his age 22 season, and should only get better. Poor run support will mean a definite lack of wins, but should provide solid value in three categories. WAVE: 3.93/11/0/201/1.269 in 197 IP.
- A bit of a sleeper if he can manage to stay in the rotation all season long, Correia posted a 2.54 ERA in eight starts down the stretch for the '07 Giants. He's improved each season in the Majors, and could suprise. WAVE has him at 4.21/8/0/133/1.404 in 171 IP.
- A sleeper only because of his strong K rate. He has the stuff to dominate, but it usually takes lefties a bit longer to realize their potential. Sanchez will likely bounce back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation all season long. Control issues and poor run support make him someone to watch, not someone to draft. WAVE: 5.09/5/0/122/1.565 in 115 IP.
- Lowry somehow managed 14 wins in 2007 despite posting a 1.551 WHIP, and playing for a poor offensive team. Noah will start the season on the DL after surgery on his forearm. Expect major regression in wins and ERA once he returns. WAVE projects 4.75/9/0/88/1.435 in 161 IP.
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