Ride The WAVE - NL Central Starting Pitchers

BB per 9/hits per 9/K's per 9, followed by ERA/Wins/Sv/K's/WHIP:

CHC: Carlos Zambrano - 4.03/7.71/8.19

• Zambrano's WHIP rose for the third straight season in '07, despite winning a career high 18 games. He pitches for a contender, and should provide fantasy owners with wins, K's, and a solid ERA. WAVE: 3.94/17/0/191/1.305 in 210 IP.

CHC: Ted Lilly - 3.03/8.11/7.13

• Lilly took to the NL quite well, and seems destined for some regression (.270 BABIP in '07). The Cubs offense should still provide Ted with plenty of opportunities for wins, but don't assume a repeat is coming. WAVE projects 4.06/12/0/153/1.238 in 193 IP.

CHC: Ryan Dempster - 4.44/9.17/6.56

• Dempster hasn't pitched in a rotation consistently since 2003 with Cincinnati, and looks to make the switch back this season with the Cubs. Endurance figures to be a bit of an issue, though not as much so as general ineffectiveness. WAVE is projecting 5.33/10/0/118/1.512 in 162 IP.

CHC: Rich Hill - 2.93/7.63/8.47

• Hill enters his second full season in the rotation as a sleeper candidate for 200 K's. Good run support should make passing last years 11 win mark easy for Rich. WAVE is calling for a 3.77/15/0/191/1.172 line in 203 IP.

CHC: Jason Marquis - 3.46/9.19/4.64

• Most were stunned when Marquis, coming off a season in which he sported a 6.03 ERA, was signed to a 3 year $21 Million deal by the Cubs before the '07 season. Chicago couldn't have been happier with the first year results though: 12 wins, 4.61 ERA. WAVE is projecting a bit of a regression in '08: 4.74/11/0/98/1.405 in 190 IP.

CIN: Aaron Harang - 2.07/8.69/8.37

• Harang has been referred to as an under-valued ace so often, that he's almost become over-valued. Two straight fantastic years make me a believer, but an ERA over 4 would never surprise me at Great American Ballpark. Not only was Harang the first pitcher in the history of the game to lead his league in wins and strikeouts (2006) and NOT WIN the Cy Young award, he didn't get a single vote on the ballot. WAVE: 3.64/17/0/214/1.196 in 230 IP.

CIN: Bronson Arroyo - 2.52/9.37/6.19

• Arroyo posted a dismal 4.84 ERA and 1.478 WHIP before the All-Star break, but bounced back with a 3.55 ERA and 1.313 WHIP over the second half. Expect numbers somewhere in the middle for 2008. WAVE projects 4.13/13/0/150/1.321 in 218 IP.

CIN: Johnny Cueto - 3.33/9.21/8.43

• A suprising, if not well deserved, addition to the Reds rotation, Cueto starts the year off at 22, and with 4 AAA starts under his belt. His season will likely be filled with numerous ups and downs; proving dominant on some occasions, while getting beaten up on others. An excellent flier based on the potential alone, and a must have in keeper leagues. Johnny has shown impeccable control in the minors, and will likely improve on that aspect of his MLB game in year two. WAVE pegs him at 4.42/12/0/162/1.393 in 173 IP.

CIN: Josh Fogg - 3.05/10.63/4.79

• The Dragon Slayer is quite possibly the first man out once (if) Homer Bailey proves ready. WAVE sees a 5.20/8/0/91/1.520 line in 171 IP.

CIN: Edinson Volquez - 3.94/8.49/7.82

• Another youngster surprisingly in the rotation, Volquez was acquired in the offseason in the Josh Hamilton trade. Obviously the Reds think highly of Edinson. Volquez will need to harness his control if he is to have any lengthy success in the Majors, something he seemed to do in the high minors in 2007. WAVE: 4.44/10/0/139/1.381 in 160 IP.

HOU: Roy Oswalt - 2.27/9.42/6.86

• With his hit rate climbing, and his K rate falling, Oswalt will be hard pressed to continue to dominate the National League. Despite posting the highest WHIP of his career in 2007, Roy still managed to garner 14 wins alongside an impressive 3.18 ERA. For 2008, WAVE is projecting 3.28/15/0/163/1.299 in 214 IP.

HOU: Wandy Rodriguez - 3.25/8.86/7.28

• Rodriguez made major strides in '07, and is a bit of a sleeper for 2008. Could post solid K totals, and 12 wins. WAVE has him at 4.64/11/0/157/1.345 in 194 IP.

HOU: Brandon Backe - 3.97/9.06/5.21

• Backe gets the nod as the Astros third starter. Not much upside here, or value outside of NL only leagues. WAVE: 4.56/8/0/88/1.447 in 152 IP.

HOU: Chris Sampson - 2.13/9.69/3.92

• A poor K rate makes Sampson undesirable for fantasy purposes, but as a soft tossing journeyman, someone to cheer for as a baseball fan. WAVE pegs him at 4.33/9/0/68/1.314 in 156 IP.

HOU: Shawn Chacon - 4.56/8.94/5.51

• Has had some success in the past, posting low ERA's and okay strikeout rates. It's important to note that the low ERA's have never seemed to match the high WHIP's. WAVE projects 5.34/7/0/98/1.500 in 160 IP.

MIL: Ben Sheets - 1.63/8.64/8.19

• Undoubtedly an ace, the fear lies in the potential for injury. If Sheets can stay healthy for the full season (for the first time since 2004), he will likely be a Cy Young candidate. That seems unlikely at this point however. WAVE: 3.41/14/0/161/1.141 in 177 IP.

MIL: Jeff Suppan - 2.96/9.89/5.09

• It will be interesting to see how the Milwaukee rotation comes together when Yovani Gallardo comes off the DL in mid-April. I feel that while Suppan should be the one to go, Manny Parra is likely to get some more AAA time. Between all of that, and the likelihood of a Ben Sheets injury, all of the Brewers starters should get a fair share of innings this season. WAVE is calling for a 4.64/10/0/91/1.429 line in 161 IP.

MIL: Dave Bush - 1.88/10.02/5.41

• Bush had a disastrous season in '07, posting a 5.13 ERA after his breakout '06 campaign. His excellent control is nearly negated by his 'hitability', and a poor start to the season could see him as the odd man out in the Brewers rotation. WAVE is projecting 4.67/9/0/95/1.323 in 158 IP.

MIL: Carlos Villanueva - 3.14/7.88/7.28

• Villanueva is the owner of a career 3.86 ERA in 168 Major League innings, and a 3.25 ERA in 473.33 Minor League innings, making him a tremendous sleeper if he can hang in the MIL rotation all season. He also possesses a strong K rate, and 200 IP could make him the surprise of the '08 season. Carlos went 2-2 with a 2.06 ERA in six starts down the stretch for the Brew Crew in '07. WAVE: 3.85/9/0/123/1.224 in 152 IP.

MIL: Manny Parra - 3.79/8.64/8.14

• Parra is surprisingly older than Villanueva, but is considered to have the higher upside of the two. If Manny heads back to the Minors to make room for Yovani Gallardo, expect him to be back up for good by mid-season. WAVE sees 4.29/6/0/114/1.381 in 126 IP for '08.

MIL: Yovani Gallardo - 3.04/8.51/8.29

• Gallardo has started the season on the DL, but should be fine. By seasons end, he may in fact be the ace of the staff - his stuff is that good. WAVE projects 3.93/16/0/188/1.284 in 204 IP.

PIT: Ian Snell - 2.97/9.17/7.64

• Did anyone else get burned in keeper leagues by drafting and later dropping Ian Oquendo? Despite being a small guy, Snell dials it up there, and possesses a strong K-rate. If only he pitched for a better team. WAVE: 4.16/14/0/180/1.349 in 212 IP.

PIT: Tom Gorzelanny - 2.97/9.17/6.12

• The walk and hit rates are a little startling to look at, after just viewing Snell's. Strikeouts really are the difference between the two for fantasy purposes. Gorz did have some shoulder issues in '07 - something to keep in mind. WAVE pegs him at 3.93/13/0/140/1.350 in 206 IP.

PIT: Paul Maholm - 2.79/10.03/5.48

• Maholm hasn't progressed as many thought he would, though he does still have age on his side. WAVE calls for a 4.79/11/0/112/1.424 line in 184 IP.

PIT: Matt Morris - 2.56/10.52/4.88

• At age 33, Morris is clearly in decline. The new Pirates regime will hope he starts off hot and accumulate some trade value, the way he did in '07, and undo the mistake trade the previous regime made in acquiring him. WAVE is projecting 4.97/10/0/103/1.453 in 190 IP.

PIT: Zach Duke - 2.66/10.84/4.76

• Much like Maholm, Duke just hasn't progressed in the Majors. Zach missed most of the second half of '07 with elbow troubles. WAVE: 5.06/8/0/93/1.500 in 176 IP.

STL: Adam Wainwright - 3.07/9.04/6.70

• The ace of the Cardinals staff, Wainwright will look to build off of his breakout '07 season in which he posted a 2.56 ERA after the All-Star break. WAVE projects 3.84/15/0/157/1.346 in 211 IP.

STL: Braden Looper - 3.02/9.57/4.40

• A move to the rotation was largely successful for Braden Looper and the Cards, but still not much of a fantasy asset. WAVE sees a 4.79/12/0/92/1.399 line in 188 IP.

STL: Kyle Lohse - 2.78/9.79/5.38

• The man who was looking for a 3 year deal in the offseason, had to settle for a 1 year $4.25 Million deal in mid-March. He eats innings and was a solid value signing for the Cardinals, but again, not much fantasy value here. WAVE is calling for a 4.69/9/0/116/1.397 line in 194 IP.

STL: Todd Wellemeyer - 5.04/8.59/6.44

• Wellemeyer gets the nod in the starting rotation while Joel Pineiro is on the mend. Severe control issues don't portend solid results. WAVE: 4.71/6/0/78/1.514 in 109 IP.

STL: Brad Thompson - 2.92/10.03/4.20

• Thompson appears better suited for relief work, and if Pineiro and Chris Carpenter can both come back healthy, that's probably exactly where he'll wind up. WAVE: 4.56/8/0/69/1.439 in 148 IP.

STL: Joel Pineiro - 2.43/10.64/5.91

• Some are calling Pineiro a sleeper for '08, based on his results late last season for St. Louis (3.96 ERA, 1.272 WHIP). I'm not buying it. It was a small sample size, and Pineiro has looked strong for periods of time in the past. Joel is currently on the DL, but is expected back in a few weeks. WAVE has him at 5.26/7/0/90/1.453 in 137 IP.