A couple of thoughts, before we dive in to the ten featured hitters:
- At first glance, WAVE seems to be far less cautious in projecting offensive stats, arguably to a fault.
- WAVE is also more aggressive in projecting AB totals, though I feel these are more justified, and are discussed in each case below.
1. Carlos Pena, 1B TB:
WAVE: .264/104/44/119/2 in 537 AB
RotoAuthority: .261/95/36/100/2 in 535 AB
Both RotoAuthority, and WAVE, see the batting average declining into the .260 range, and rightfully so. Pena's career batting average before his breakout 2007 campaign, was a meager .243. The two categories that have a major discrepancy are RBI and HR. RBI are difficult to project, and obviously depend greatly on teammates getting on base in front of you. Most projected lineups have Pena batting third, or fourth. Both Scenarios have Akinori Iwamura batting leadoff (.359 OBP in '07, projected .362 in '08), followed by Carl Crawford (.355 OBP in '07, projected .346 in '08). If Pena bats fourth, BJ Upton is likely to be the third place hitter (.386 OBP in '07, projected .403 in '08). Obviously, the RBI opportunities will be more favourable for Carlos if he's batting fourth, behind Upton's high OBP, however, the fact that Pena wouldn't be pitched around as often if batting in front of Upton, probably evens things out. All in all, Tampa Bay has a much improved offensive lineup, and RBI opportunities should be plenty. 36 home runs is most definitely a reasonable expectation for 2008, but there are a few reasons to expect more:
- First, is AB's. Pena's huge 2007 came in only 490 AB. His 10.7 ABs-to-homers ratio was the best in the Majors. WAVE's 44 HR in 537 projected AB is actually predicting a decline, down to 12.2 ABs-to-homers.
- Second, is his splits. Pena hit precisely the same amount of HR at home, as he did on the road: 23. He also belted 26 home runs after the All-Star break, tied for most in the Majors with Ryan Howard, and hit 13 home runs in September alone, a Rays record for any month. Clearly Pena wasn't 'figured out' by pitchers, and strong second halves have been known to carry over into the next season. Most importantly is Pena's improvement versus left handed pitchers. Carlos' numbers versus lefties in his last three full seasons, prior to 2007 (AVG/OBP/SLG): '05 - .157/.189/.412, '04 - .245/.315/.483, '03 - .208/.284/.356. His numbers in '07?: .271/.381/.571.
- Despite Pena's dramatic increase in HR totals, his 2007 GB/FB ratio of 0.92 was right in line with his career number of 0.93. There wasn't an abnormal number of flyballs leaving his bat.
- Hit Tracker is a website that tracks every Major League home run hit. Among other things, the distance a swatted ball travels is thoroughly examined. Hit Tracker divides home runs up into three categories: No Doubters, Just Enoughers, and Everything Else. Carlos Pena lead the American League in 2007 with the lowest percentage of Just Enoughers (minimum 30 HR), blasting only 10 of his 46 home runs for cheap shots, for a 22%. His 2007 total wasn't fluky as far as just clearing the outfield wall goes.
2. Kosuke Fukudome, OF CHC:
WAVE: .310/112/16/91/11 in 545 AB
RotoAuthority: .281/93/18/85/10 in 550 AB
Kosuke Fukudome is not a combination of Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui, as I keep reading in articles, and hearing on Spring Training television broadcasts. Kosuke Fukudome is Kosuke Fukudome. Every time a new Japanese player comes to MLB, he is unnecessarily and inexplicably compared to his countrymen. While more Japanese players in the Majors gives us more data points to examine when trying to project out their stats, it has the unfortunate side effect of not evaluating players based on their own unique skill sets. I wouldn't dare project Brian Lawrence based on the numbers that Roy Halladay has put up, simply because they were both born in Colorado, yet that is exactly what happens with every new NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) import. The point really, is that scouting reports are equally as important as raw data. Kosuke is a patient hitter, with a line drive stroke, moderate power, and the ability to spray the ball. From the scouting side, he has all the makings of a .300 hitter, and WAVE sees it happening in 2008. Fukudome's last four healthy seasons have resulted in the following batting averages: .351, .328, .312, and .343, for a .333 total average. Cherry picking the stats is a little unfair, but if Kosuke is healthy, I see no reason why he won't hit .300+.
WAVE and RotoAuthority are in agreement virtually everywhere else except for runs scored. When I did the WAVE projection, Piniella was looking at batting Fukudome at the top of the order, explaining the high runs scored total. It now looks as though Kosuke will bat fifth, so I definitely give the nod on runs to RotoAuthority, but AVG to WAVE. Lou Piniella is known for being pretty fickle, so Fukudome could end up back at the top of the order, which is probably where he belongs. Kosuke's ADP is 178.71, so it doesn't look like there's any special discount on him come draft day, though I would take him over Willy Taveras, Johnny Damon, and Aaron Rowand.
3. Shane Victorino, OF PHI:
WAVE: .297/108/17/67/42 in 599 AB
RotoAuthority: .280/91/15/63/29 in 550 AB
First, let's adjust the AB discrepancy, and bump RotoAuthority up to WAVE's 599 AB. That brings Shane Victorino's line up to: .280/99/16/69/32. The differences seem to lie in batting average, runs scored, and stolen bases, much of which may have to do with the boost that WAVE gives to batters in their age 27 season, which Victorino is entering. Victorino stole 37 bases in 41 attempts (a remarkable 90% success rate) last year while racking up 456 AB, and had the green light all season long. I just can't see the swipes going anywhere but up with more AB in 2008. Shane has been projected to bat second by numerous websites, always between Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. Hitting near the top of the order should ensure the high AB and runs scored totals that WAVE is projecting, and there aren't many places to bat in all of baseball as comfy as inbetween those two. The Flyin' Hawaiian should see plenty of good pitches to hit in 2008. Remarkably, Victorino is being drafted behind Juan Pierre, at 125.54 on average. I'd also take my chances on Shane over 2007 disappointments Vernon Wells and Jason Bay.
4. Michael Bourn, OF HOU:
WAVE: .268/117/5/40/62 in 586 AB
RotoAuthority: .262/88/5/41/44 in 500 AB
Again, let's adjust the AB, to bring Bourn up to WAVE's projected 586. That makes the RotoAuthority projection: .262/103/6/48/52. The only major differences here are in runs and steals. As the everyday center fielder and leadoff man, Bourn shouldn't have a problem approaching 600 AB, barring injury. I feel the Houston offense is incredibly underrated heading into 2008, with Bourn hitting atop the following lineup:
CF Michael Bourn
2B Kazuo Matsui
SS Miguel Tejada
1B Lance Berkman
LF Carlos Lee
RF Hunter Pence
3B Ty Wigginton
C JR Towles
100 runs scored should be a piece of cake, though the 117 that WAVE has projected is probably the upper limit. 2007 saw Bourn steal 18 bases, while only getting caught once (95% success rate). What makes that success rate even more remarkable is that a lot of his steals came when the defense was expecting him to run; when he was pinch running late in games. Astros manager Cecil Cooper has said that Bourn will have the green light to run whenever he sees an opportunity, seemingly making 40+ steals a lock, 50+ probable, and 60+ possible. WAVE's 62 projected stolen bases likely represents his ceiling. Even using the less aggressive Rotoauthority numbers, he should outperform his ADP of 193.26 when all is said and done.
5. Nate McLouth, OF PIT:
WAVE: .262/104/20/56/30 in 534 AB
RotoAuthority: .263/74/15/48/22 in 450 AB
Bumping up the RotoAuthority projection to 534 AB, we get a .263/88/18/57/26 line. With Nyjer Morgan batting .233 in 43 Spring AB's, McLouth is looking like a lock for the starting center field job in Pittsburgh, and is being projected as the leadoff man. All of the numbers here are pretty comparable, except for the runs scored. The Pittsburgh offense is pretty anemic, so topping 100 runs may prove difficult for McLouth. For those who are skeptical of Mclouth's 2007 'breakout', it should be noted that adjusting Nate's 2006 season up to 534 AB, would have resulted in the following line: .233/99/14/32/20. Not terrific, but he was only 24 at the time, and has shown steady progress each season in the bigs. It should also be noted that McLouth hit for good averages in the minor leagues, so presumably the potential is there for the average to improve a little. McLouth's ADP is 303, which means he can be had in the last round or two of most standard mixed leagues. Considering the potential for three categories on the cheap, a wise investment with your last pick.
6. Jack Cust, OF OAK:
WAVE: .262/82/34/108/0 in 500 AB
RotoAuthority: .246/75/24/74/0 in 455 AB
Bringing the RotoAuthority projections up to 500 AB, we get the following line: .246/82/26/81/0. Major discrepancies in average, home runs and runs batted in, and quite frankly, I'm leaning towards the RotoAuthority projection here. Cust strikes out so abundantly (once every 2.4 AB), that an average in the .230's wouldn't surprise me. There's also the fact that amongst MLB players with at least 20 HR in '07, Jack Cust had the 3rd highest percentage of cheap home runs (12 of 26 for a 46.15%). That would seem to imply a major regression for 2008. On the bright side:
- Cust is projected to bat 4th for Oakland, and even if he struggles, they really don't have a power bat to replace him in the middle of the lineup. Even with the A's looking weaker than most years, hitting 4th should lead to a good number of RBI opportunities.
- As much as high K totals will mean slumps, his high BB totals should bring some major hot streaks with them.
- Fantasy baseball is all about finding profits. With an ADP of 253.2, Cust is worth a late gamble for his 30 HR, 100 RBI potential.
WAVE: .347/92/11/72/12 in 614 AB
RotoAuthority: .297/69/11/66/11 in 500 AB
The RotoAuthority projections bumped up to 614 AB: .297/85/14/81/14. The only real difference here is batting average, a whopping 50 points. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't surprised when WAVE projected Kendrick as the AL batting champ. After Kendrick's excellent .322 '07, WAVE sees continued progress. The 614 projected AB's were a result of both Kendrick's low walk rate (18 BB in 605 career AB), and his projected second spot in the lineup. I feel Kendrick belongs in the two-hole, and will end up there eventually, but some are projecting him to bat sixth or seventh, which would obviously negatively impact his AB and Run totals. Howie posted an astounding career minor league average of .359 in 1529 AB, and for what it's worth, Peter Gammons was quoted as saying that he wouldn't be at all surprised if Kendrick won the batting title in '08 (quoted from March 18th Spring Training telecast; WAS @ DET). Kendrick is also apparently going to run more in '08, an added bonus if true. Howie has an ADP of 148.93, but with second base looking so deep this year, it's hard to recommend taking him any earlier. Unless of course you're confident he will bat .347, but that's an awfully big number to be relying on.
8. Billy Butler, DH KC:
WAVE: .311/78/19/99/0 in 578 AB
RotoAuthority: .289/72/17/84/1 in 530 AB
Adjusting the AB discrepancy, we get the following line from RotoAuthority in 578 AB: .289/79/19/92/1. A handful of RBI, and a wide margin in batting average make up the difference. Butler sported a solid walk rate, and a career .336 average in 1431 career minor league AB's. It's true that his lone season in AAA was his worst (.291 AVG), but, it was only 203 at bats, he displayed his best single season K/BB ratio (32/43), and he was only 21 years old. Called up to the Majors, Butler hit .292 in 329 AB. At 22 years old, Butler may have a few years before he reaches stardom (if he makes it there), but WAVE likes him to show progress in year two. Billy has an ADP of 226.59, likely in part due to his DH only eligibility in most leagues, undeveloped power, and the fact that he plays for KC. A great keeper league pick, and even in yearly pools, he could surprise. Again, it's all about profits.
9. Matt Kemp, OF LAD:
WAVE: .300/93/20/82/20 in 546 AB
RotoAuthority: .300/82/18/76/22 in 511 AB
Bumping the RotoAuthority projections up to 546 AB, we get: .300/88/19/81/24. Nearly identical projections. The issue with Kemp of course is playing time. Will Los Angeles play it smart, and sit Juan Pierre and his massive (mistake) contract? Kemp has an ADP of 146.9, and is being taken 40 players after (on average) Juan Pierre. Considering Kemp's potential to help in all 5 categories, and high upside, I wouldn't touch Pierre before him. I see eye to eye with Tim on this one, and don't really have anything else to add to the discussion.
10. Geovany Soto, C CHC:
WAVE: .273/58/16/51/0 in 425 AB
RotoAuthority: .279/58/18/68/0 in 432 AB
Aside from the 17 RBI, not much of a difference here either. Personally, I'm skeptical. Soto put up an astounding .353/75/26/109/0 line in '07 in AAA. Problems:
- Soto was never highly regarded as a prospect before his 2007 season.
- 2007 was his third crack at AAA.
- The Pacific Coast League is notoriously hitter friendly.
- Before '07, Soto's career high in home runs was 9.
RotoAuthority projections reprinted with permission. Thanks to Tim Dierkes for allowing me to do this.
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