WAVE Runs Leaders

Using the WAVE projections for batters, here are the top 25 players in Runs, ranked in order.

rank	player	runs	rank	player	runs
1	Alex Rodriguez	132	14	Kosuke Fukudome	112
2	Jimmy Rollins	131	14	BJ Upton	112
3	Curtis Granderson	125	16	Ichiro Suzuki	111
3	Hanley Ramirez	125	16	Dan Uggla	111
5	Alex Rios	120	18	Ryan Braun	110
5	Grady Sizemore	120	18	Derek Jeter	110
5	Chase Utley	120	18	Albert Pujols	110
8	Michael Bourn	117	21	Gary Sheffield	109
9	David Ortiz	116	22	Kelly Johnson	108
10	Jose Reyes	115	22	Shane Victorino	108
10	Troy Tulowitzki	115	24	Hideki Matsui	107
12	Bobby Abreu	114	24	David Wright	107
12	Matt Holliday	114	25	Chipper Jones	106

Analysis:

• Michael Bourn is being under-valued, and under-projected (a term I just made up). Houston is committed to hitting Bourn at the top of their potent offense, making 100+ runs scored a lock. He doesn't have to hit for a very high AVG to provide fantasy value, as the runs and stolen bases should be there regardless.
• Fukudome's WAVE projection of 112 runs scored was based on Lou Piniella's inclination to bat him near the top of the Cubs lineup, right where his OBP bat belongs. However, in recent days, Sweet Lou has decided that Ryan Theriot will hit at the top of the lineup, with Kosuke moving down to the 5th spot. Not a good move for the Cubs. As a result, Fukudome may score significantly less runs than projected. Piniella is known for being pretty fickle, so Kosuke could certainly move back up where he belongs at some point during the season.
• Only Dan Uggla and Chase Utley are projected to score more runs at second base this season than Kelly Johnson. The potential for 20 HR is also there, and KJ is being taken as late as the 14th round in some drafts.
• Shane Victorino isn't getting the love he deserves, as a potential 4 category player in '08.
• Chipper Jones and Gary Sheffield are both risky run scorers due to recent health issues.