WAVE HR Leaders

Using the WAVE projections for batters, here are the top 25 players in Home Runs, ranked in order.

RANK	PLAYER	HR	RANK	PLAYER	HR
1	Ryan Howard	50	13	Lance Berkman	34
2	Alex Rodriguez	49	13	Paul Konerko	34
3	Carlos Pena	44	13	Chris Duncan	34
3	Prince Fielder	44	17	Pat Burrell	33
5	David Ortiz	42	17	Carlos Lee	33
6	Adam Dunn	40	17	Rick Ankiel	33
7	Albert Pujols	39	17	Chris Young	33
8	Ryan Braun	38	17	Matt Holliday	33
9	Alfonso Soriano	36	22	Travis Hafner	32
9	Jim Thome	36	22	Manny Ramirez	32
9	Mark Teixeira	36	22	Jermaine Dye	32
12	Andruw Jones	35	22	Josh Hamilton	32
13	Jack Cust	34	22	Miguel Cabrera	32

Analysis:

• Most projection systems aren't as high on Pena as WAVE. He's still being drafted 85.64 on average, behind the likes of Carlos Guillen (projected for 19 HR), Adrian Gonzalez (29 HR), and Derrek Lee (29 HR). Despite the low AVG Pena is likely to hit for, I would be comfortable taking him before all three.
• WAVE projects Jack Cust at 34 HR, 13th in baseball. He'll be straky all season long, but with an ADP of 247.82, Cust is being taken behind a slew of players that won't touch his offensive output for '08.
• Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel both figure to play everyday, and have the raw power to provide St. Louis with 30+ HR apiece.
• So long as Josh Hamilton can stay healthy for the full season, he should have no problem jacking 32 HR for Texas.