Ride The WAVE - NL Central Outfielders

As with all of the posts, if you see a player that is not projected, and would like him to be, simply let me know in the comments section. AVG/OBP/SLG, followed by AVG/Runs/HR/RBI/SB:

CHC: Alfonso Soriano - .283/.331/.544

• A consistent 5 category star, the only real concern I have with Soriano is his dramatic decrease in SB last season (41 in '06 to 19 in '07). Even still, he should be safe to draft amongst the games top outfielders. WAVE: .283/102/36/83/26 in 607 AB.

CHC: Kosuke Fukudome - .310/.410/.484

• Considering that batting average has been one of the few hitting statistics that have translated on a nearly 1:1 scale from NPB to MLB, I'm surprised at all of the low AVG projections I've been seeing (.270-.290). If free swinger Akinori Iwamura can bat .285 in his rookie season, then surely Fukudome's patient aproach at the plate can result in an AVG over .300. The projected runs total is a function of Kosuke batting in the number three hole, something that Lou Piniella is apparently considering. Admittedly, this projection may be at the high end of the spectrum, but I plugged the numbers in, and this is what WAVE spit out: .310/112/16/91/11 in 545 AB.

CHC: Felix Pie - .260/.314/.405

• Fantasy owners are sure to be disappointed by this stat line. While he has much greater upside, and is still quite young, there's still a chance that Pie is nothing more than the new Corey Patterson. Time will tell. Bid accordingly. WAVE projects .260/66/10/50/17 in 504 AB.

CIN: Ken Griffey - .280/.364/.515

• Junior has stayed relatively healthy for three consecutive years now. His age, and past injury issues, may allow you to get a 30 homer man on the cheap. WAVE sees a .280/77/31/89/3 line in 497 AB.

CIN: Adam Dunn - .252/.381/.533

• A lock to hit 40 homers, make sure you have some high AVG hitters to compensate for Dunn's projected .252 line. WAVE: .252/101/40/101/8 in 535 AB.

CIN: Ryan Freel - .267/.345/.374

• So long as he steals bases, he'll have some fantasy value. Freel is unlikely to ever play every day again, whether that be due to injury, or opportunity. WAVE is projecting .267/53/4/19/24 in 337 AB.

CIN: Jay Bruce - .280/.361/.510

• Baseball America's 2007 Minor League Player of the Year, Bruce has the talent to take over in CF full time at some point in 2008, depsite having just turned 21. WAVE likes him to hit .280/44/12/47/6 in 296 AB.

HOU: Carlos Lee - .295/.349/.522

• Lee is another consistent outfielder who's performance should remain steady in '08. The dozen or so steals he's likely to provide are an added bonus. WAVE: .295/93/33/117/13 in 624 AB.

HOU: Michael Bourn - .268/.339/.375

• For whatever reason, Houston's offense seems incredibly underrated going into '08. The 'Stros are committed to hitting Bourn in the leadoff spot everyday, making 100 runs and 50 steals a lock in my book. Bourn won't have to get on base at an incredible clip to provide solid fantasy numbers, due to the high octane offense batting behind him. WAVE likes him as a sleeper, and to bat .268/117/5/40/62 in 586 AB.

HOU: Hunter Pence - .304/.355/.534

• The NL ROY race would have been a tight one, had Pence not gone down with a wrist injury. It will be fun to see what he can do in a full injury-free season. WAVE: .304/85/25/93/16 in 579 AB.

MIL: Ryan Braun - .311/.365/.592

• The man who beat out Pence for the aforementioned ROY award, Braun seems likely to slip a little in year two. Even experiencing a bit of a sophomore slump shouldn't hold Braun back from being one of the best young outfielders in the game (offensively anyway). WAVE: .311/110/38/115/24 in 578 AB.

MIL: Corey Hart - .311/.371/.559

• With a defined role, and regular playing time, Hart should only continue to get better. At 6'6", the steals aren't likely to be a mainstay, but for now, he's a 5 category player. WAVE projects .311/96/27/92/24 in 546 AB.

MIL: Mike Cameron - .257/.344/.463

• Cameron will sit out the first 25 games of the season following two positive tests for a banned stimulant, cutting into his fantasy value for '08. When he does return to the Brewers linuep, expect the Cameron of old, helping a little in every category but AVG. WAVE sees a .257/64/16/58/15 line in 408 AB.

PIT: Jason Bay - .268/.359/.472

• Many people are expecting a big rebound season from Bay in '08, and while he should bounce back a bit, WAVE doesn't see him returning to pre-2007 levels. While Bay's K rate remained within career norms in '07, his walk rate plummeted dramatically. The steals are also likely a thing of the past, as they fell all the way down to 4 last season. WAVE: .268/90/26/93/9 in 559 AB.

PIT: Nate McLouth - .262/.343/.453

• McLouth makes for a decent sleeper in '08 due to the power/speed combo he provides fantasy owners with. WAVE pegs him at .262/104/20/56/30 in 534 AB.

PIT: Xavier Nady - .277/.331/.463

• Nady seems to have trouble staying healthy, missing time in Spring Training with a viral infection, then missing time in the regular season due to a strained hamstring on 4 seperate occasions, and a HBP in September. All in all, his career high AB total is 468. If he could manage to stay healthy for a full season, he has 30 home run potential, but don't count on that happening. WAVE: .277/56/19/68/3 in 441 AB.

STL: Chris Duncan - .282/.372/.541

• Duncan proved the nay-sayers wrong last season, as he blasted 21 HR in only 375 AB. His splits are atrocious, but there's no way he should be sitting against any right handed pitcher, and should therefore rack up 500 + AB in Brad Hawpe fashion. WAVE: .282/86/34/99/2 in 521 AB.

STL: Rick Ankiel - .269/.327/.495

• Will Ankiel continue to mash without the HGH? Even as a pitcher, he was highly regarded at the dish. WAVE likes him for 30 HR on the cheap. .269/90/33/108/0 in 546 AB.

STL: Colby Rasmus - .279/.366/.517

• If Brian Barton can prove he's capable with the stick (which WAVE sees happening), then Rasmus may start the season in the minors. The CF job should be his before the year is out however. WAVE: .279/39/12/34/10 in 240 AB.

STL: Brian Barton - .279/.375/.415

• Barton should settle in as a fourth outfielder by seasons end, but he possesses solid speed, and a good eye at the dish, so for a small investment, he could potentially return some dividends. WAVE projects .279/57/10/57/22 in 366 AB.