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Feel free to email me any baseball related questions you may have for SFB's mailbag: sciencefictionbaseball@hotmail.com

What's the story on Yu Darvish? Will this guy be any good in '09? Thanks!

BIO:
For those who are unaware of exactly who Yu Darvish is, I'll take a moment to provide a brief bio. Darvish is the ace pitcher for the Nippon Ham Fighters (quite possibly the coolest pro sports team name ever), and number one starting pitcher in Japan, now that Matsuzaka has left to pitch for the Red Sox. It certainly could be argued that Darvish would be the best pitcher in the NPB whether or not Matsuzaka had left. At merely 22 years of age, Yu won the 2007 Sawamura Award (NPB's equivalent of the Cy Young) by posting a 1.82 ERA, 15 wins, 12 CG, and 210 K's. At 6'5" tall, many scouts feel he will add bulk to his frame, simultaneously adding durability, and a few MPH to his fastball. Rumors have circulated over the course of the last couple of months that Darvish may be posted after the 2008 season, with the Yankees first in line to sign him.

RESPONSE:
Darvish will be phenomenal in 2009, but unfortunately for fantasy leaguers, all those great stats will be accrued in the NPB in Japan. One Japanese Daily (Sankei Sports) ran the story of Darvish's potential posting, and while American media jumped all over the piece, not a SINGLE OTHER Japanese Daily picked up the story. That speaks volumes as to how legitimate the initial 'news' was. This thread gives you an idea of the validity of the rumor. There are a few factors to consider here. First, and most important, "unlike Matsuzaka, Darvish has told the Japanese press that he has no intention of seeking a move to America anytime in the future". Second, he is under control of the Nippon Ham Fighters until 2014. Third, Nippon Ham isn't in dire need of the cash they would receive from posting Darvish. Logic dictates that if the Fighters were to decide to post Darvish, they would do so as close to 2014 as possible. Similarly, the Seibu Lions posted Matsuzaka one season before he would have qualified for free agency. Assuming Yu Darvish changes his mind about playing in MLB, I would be surprised to see him posted before 2011 or 2012. Unless you're in an athletes who model roto league, Darvish shouldn't be on anyone's radar just yet.

Who will be the first of the '07 amateur draft class to make fantasy impact?

Dave

When trying to predict the fantasy impact of prospects, it is very important to look at, not only the talent involved, but the opportunity for playing time in an extended role. For example, David Price looks like a phenomenal prospect, but Tampa Bay has plenty of top notch SP prospects that currently rank ahead of him on the depth chart (Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, Jacob McGee, etc.), while maybe not necessarily ranking ahead of him as far as pure skills go. I'm going to pick one of either Beau Mills (3B, CLE) or Ross Dewiler (SP, WAS). Detwiler piched one inning for WAS last September to become the first of the '07 draft class to make it to the Majors. The Nats seem to have built a rotation around the "quantity over quality" philosophy over the last few years, and Detwiler's high upside arm shouldn't have trouble cracking the rotation in '09. CLE is nearly done with Casey Blake as a regular at third, and once highly regarded prospect Andy Marte hasn't progressed at the plate in AAA. With his surgically repaired shoulder apparently at 100%, Mills could fill in the gap in '09. Of course, these things rarely work out the way you expect them to, and it's just as likely that ARI can't find a suitable closer and Jarrod Parker is slamming the door shut in June. But it's always fun to speculate.

How much should you really value a shaky closer at the draft table? Will Todd Jones & Joe Borowski be worth the investment? -PG

I personally don't advocate spending much on closers on draft day. Year after year, relief pitchers come out of nowhere to nail down the closers job mid-season, and are available off the waiver wire for cheap. In fact, I picked a Florida Marlins relief pitcher off the waiver wire in 2005 for $1. He went on to post a 2.10 ERA and 40 saves, and I went on to win the League Championship. That man was none other than Todd Jones. Jones and Borowski are both shaky options for '08, but if you get them cheap enough, or late enough, in a draft, be sure to draft Masahide Kobayashi or Fernando Rodney as well. If you can, I'd steer clear and look for other cheap options like Matt Capps of PIT or Kevin Gregg of FLA.

Does Juan Gonzalez have any chance in hell of cracking St. Louis' outfield?

Yanksin08

No. While it would make for a nice story, and Gonzalez is probably no worse than Sammy Sosa, who made a decent comeback in '07, It's just not likely. Juan Gone is hard pressed to stay healthy for any significant amount of time at this point, and STL's OF is pretty set, with Rick Ankiel, Colby Rasmus, Chris Duncan, Ryan Ludwick, Rule V pick Brian Barton, and even Scott Speizio, who played 18 games in the OF in '07.